ClaimsDario Amodei

“If achieved, this would bring sub-Saharan Africa to the current per-capita GDP of China in 5-10 years, while raising much of the rest of the developing world to levels higher than the current US GDP.”

Dario Amodei, essay author 17 August 2015 Machines of Loving Grace (darioamodei.com)

Prediction Economics and markets

If 20% annual GDP growth were achieved in the developing world, sub-Saharan Africa would reach China's current per-capita GDP in 5-10 years.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

This is a conditional arithmetic prediction, so judge it by calculation rather than by real-world growth. Use sub-Saharan Africa's and China's per-capita GDP as of 2015 (World Bank or IMF figures). Compute the years needed for SSA to reach China's 2015 level at 20% compound annual growth: n = ln(China/SSA) / ln(1.2). The claim does not specify a basis, so check both nominal US dollars and PPP. TRUE: n falls between 5 and 10 years on both bases, or on one common basis with the other within about half a year of the range. MOSTLY TRUE: n is within 5–10 on one standard basis (nominal or PPP) and just outside on the other (within about one year). MIXED: n is within range on one basis and clearly outside on the other. MOSTLY FALSE: n is outside 5–10 on both bases but within about one year of the range. FALSE: n is more than about one year outside the 5–10 range on both bases.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 WorldStat - statistics for education WorldStat (secondary site citing World Bank Data) · September 2016

    “| Sub-Saharan Africa | 1640 | 1902 | 3166 | 3695 |”
  2. E2 WorldStat - statistics for education WorldStat (secondary site citing World Bank Data) · September 2016

    “| China | 980 | 2915 | 9239 | 14239 |”

Reasoning

E2 and E3 give GDP-per-capita table rows for sub-Saharan Africa and China. The quotes do not include the basis (nominal or PPP) or the year column headers, so no figure can be confirmed as the 2015 value. If the last column were 2015 (3695 vs 14239), the PPP calculation would give about 7.4 years at 20% growth, but that column assignment is unverified. No nominal-dollar figures are provided, and the criteria require checking both bases. The evidence therefore does not settle the calculation.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “If 20% annual GDP growth were achieved in the developing world, sub-Saharan Africa would reach China's current per-capita GDP in 5-10 years.” (said 17 August 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_fa63a74732c0, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fa63a74732c0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.