As of 2020-03-27, blue states have more detected coronavirus cases than red states.

Judge as of 2020-03-27 using cumulative confirmed COVID-19 case counts by US state as reported on or about that date. Classify states as blue or red by their 2016 presidential vote, the usual meaning. As a check, also classify them by governor's party; if both methods agree, use that result. Exclude DC and territories, or note that including them does not change the result. True: the total confirmed cases in blue states clearly exceed the total in red states. Mostly true: blue states lead under the 2016-vote method but the gap is small or depends on a minor classification choice. Mixed: the result flips depending on a reasonable classification (e.g. 2016 vote vs governor party). Mostly false: blue states lead only because of one outlier such as New York and the claim is presented as a general pattern, or they lead only under an unusual classification. False: red states have as many or more confirmed cases under the standard classification.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 COVID-19 Update: US Now Leads with Most Confirmed Cases | Patient Care Online Patient Care Online · 27 March 2020

   “The 5 states with the highest total confirmed cases are: 1. New York: 39 140 2. New Jersey: 6876 3. California: 4040 4. Washington: 3207 5. Michigan: 2844”

2. E2 Associations between governor political affiliation and COVID-19 cases, deaths, and testing in the United States PubMed Central (peer-reviewed journal article by independent researchers) · 6 January 2021

   “From March to early June, Republican-led states had lower COVID-19 incidence rates compared to Democratic-led states.”

3. E3 As Election Day nears, COVID-19 spreads further into red America | Brookings Brookings Institution · 9 March 2022

   “In March, April, and May, blue states, as a group, exhibited higher COVID-19 case rates.”

E1 gives confirmed case counts only for the five states with the most cases, and E2 and E3 report group case or incidence rates, not cumulative counts. The evidence therefore does not show the total confirmed cases in blue versus red states as of 2020-03-27. It also cannot tell whether any blue-state lead depended on New York alone, and it gives no counts grouped by governor's party.