ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“Most of you (again I’m using the plural form of the word) are likely to be around to see the Singularity.”

Ray Kurzweil, essay author 2001 The Law of Accelerating Returns (Kurzweil Library) archived copy

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Most of his readers are likely to be alive to see the Singularity.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

The Singularity is undefined and has no deadline, so it cannot be tested, and the prediction could still come true at any time.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Most of his readers are likely to be alive to see the Singularity.” (said 2001). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f8150b76cdb4, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f8150b76cdb4

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Kurzweil, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Mostly false Prediction 3 June 2015
    “We're going to gradually merge and enhance ourselves.”

    Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves.

  2. Mostly false Prediction January 2001
    “In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020.”

    Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020.

  3. Resolved true Prediction January 2001
    “we’re not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decades”

    Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available.

  4. Mostly false Prediction May 2020
    “This is where combining AI with biotechnology is headed, and within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done this way.”

    Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 12 December 2002
    “Ten or 15 years from now we’ll go to the third dimension.”

    Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.