Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
Prediction that 10-15 years after 2002 (i.e., by 2012-2017) computing moves to three-dimensional circuits as 2D integrated circuits run out of steam. Judge at 2017. True if by 2017 three-dimensional/stacked circuit technology had become a mainstream direction of computing (e.g., 3D NAND, 3D chip stacking, FinFET/3D transistor structures in commercial production). Mostly true if a clear move to 3D occurred but modestly later or narrower than framed. Mixed if partially realized. Mostly false if only early/experimental 3D work existed by 2017 with 2D scaling still dominant. False if no meaningful shift to 3D circuits had occurred.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Fin field-effect transistor Wikipedia
“It is the basis for modern nanoelectronic semiconductor device fabrication. Microchips utilizing FinFET gates first became commercialized in the first half of the 2010s, and became the dominant gate design at 14 nm, 10 nm and 7 nm process nodes.”
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E2 Fin field-effect transistor Wikipedia
“In 2017, TSMC began production of SRAM memory using a 7 nm process.”
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E3 Fin field-effect transistor Wikipedia
“In 2020, Chenming Hu received the IEEE Medal of Honor award for his development of the FinFET, which the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) credited with taking transistors to the third dimension and extending Moore's law.”
Reasoning
E1 says chips using FinFET gates were first sold in the first half of the 2010s and became the dominant gate design at the 14 nm, 10 nm and 7 nm nodes. E3 says the IEEE credited the FinFET with taking transistors into the third dimension. E2 says TSMC began producing SRAM on a 7 nm process in 2017. The criteria name 3D transistor structures in commercial production as enough for "true", and that had happened within the 2012–2017 window. The evidence covers only FinFETs, not 3D NAND or chip stacking, but the criteria accept that example on its own.
Cite this claim
Ray Kurzweil, “Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam.” (said 12 December 2002). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_62f059db9688, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_62f059db9688
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Ray Kurzweil
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“In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020.”
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“my prediction is that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and more evidence of the exponential nature of technology and its impact on the economy becomes apparent.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.