Life expectancy was 20 a thousand years ago, 35 in 1800, and is now nearly 80.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2024-03-29, reading 'life expectancy' as life expectancy at birth, global or for advanced countries as the claim implies. Parts: (a) about 20 around the year 1000; (b) about 35 in 1800; (c) nearly 80 now. True: demographic history estimates put life expectancy at birth around 20–30 about 1000 years ago (roughly 20 is within the scholarly range), around 30–40 in 1800 (e.g. in Western countries; the global figure is about 29), and around 75–83 in developed countries in 2024 (the global figure is about 73), so each figure fits a reasonable reading. Mostly true: the trend is correct and two figures fit, but one is a bit off (e.g. the 1000 AD figure fits only the low end of the estimates). Mixed: about half the figures are substantially off or depend on mixing global and wealthy-country bases. Mostly false: the long-run rise is real, but the figures are notably distorted (e.g. the global 2024 figure of about 73 is presented as 'pushing 80' along with low global historical figures), or the low historical figures are presented without saying they reflect infant mortality. False: the figures are wrong outright.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 United Nations | Department of Economic and Social Affairs | Population Division UN DESA Population Division · July 2024
“Globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995.”
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E2 Historical Overview (2012 update) - Foundation For Teaching Economics Foundation for Teaching Economics · 2012
“for the world as a whole, it took thousands of years for life expectancy at birth to rise from the low 20s to around 30 years in the mid-18th century.”
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E3 Historical Overview (2012 update) - Foundation For Teaching Economics Foundation for Teaching Economics · 2012
“From Table 2 we see that by 1800, life expectancy in France was just under 30 years, and in Great Britain about 36, levels that China and India had not reached 100 years later.”
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E4 Historical Overview (2012 update) - Foundation For Teaching Economics Foundation for Teaching Economics · 2012
“Infant mortality was high everywhere; depending on time and location, between 20 and 25 percent or more of babies died before their first birthday.”
Reasoning
The evidence supports a figure in the low 20s for the distant past [E2] and about 36 for Britain in 1800 [E3], and it gives a global 2024 figure of 73.3 [E1]. No evidence gives a current figure for wealthy countries, which the criteria allow as a reading, so the evidence cannot settle whether the "pushing 80" part fits.
Cite this claim
Ray Kurzweil, “Life expectancy was 20 a thousand years ago, 35 in 1800, and is now nearly 80.” (said 29 March 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f6185dab67c8, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f6185dab67c8
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil
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Mostly false
“That’s actually getting better as we’ve gotten more intelligent.”
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Mostly true
“Life expectancy was like 28.”
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Resolved true
“Substantial portions of our species still live this precarious existence, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the social and economic enhancements that accompany it.”
Substantial portions of humanity still live precarious, fragile existences.
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Mostly false
“That was not true a year ago. But that’s true today.”
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Resolved true
“In 1999, I predicted 2029 for AGI and I still predict 2029.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.