ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“Life expectancy was like 28.”

Ray Kurzweil, interviewee 29 March 2024 The Future Is Nearer with Ray Kurzweil (Nob Hill Gazette) archived copy

Factual Philosophy, ethics and society

About 300 years ago, life expectancy was around 28.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The claim is that roughly 300 years before the statement (around the early 1700s) human life expectancy at birth was around 28. True if demographic/historical sources give a life expectancy at birth around that era of approximately 28 (say, within a few years, roughly 25-32). Mostly true if the figure is close but modestly off (e.g., mid-30s or low-20s) or the time reference is slightly different. Mixed not applicable (single quantity). Mostly false if the real estimate differs substantially (e.g., 40+) but there is a defensible basis. False if historical estimates clearly contradict it.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (9)

  1. E1 Farewell to Alms - r3 - UC Davis Gregory Clark (UC Davis economics faculty page), chapter 5 'Life Expectancy' of Farewell to Alms

    “But those lucky enough to celebrate a fifteenth birthday could then expect to celebrate 37 more.”
  2. E2 Farewell to Alms - r3 - UC Davis Gregory Clark (UC Davis economics faculty page), chapter 5 'Life Expectancy' of Farewell to Alms

    “eighteenth century, a mere 23 years, was thus lower than for most pre-industrial societies”
  3. E3 Farewell to Alms - r3 - UC Davis Gregory Clark (UC Davis economics faculty page), chapter 5 'Life Expectancy' of Farewell to Alms

    “ranged from 24 to 37, with a median of 32.5 years”
  4. E4 Farewell to Alms, Chapter 5: Life Expectancy Gregory Clark (UC Davis economics faculty page; chapter from the book Farewell to Alms)

    “Life expectancy at birth, at 28 in the latter half of the eighteenth century, was even lower in pre-industrial France”
  5. E5 Farewell to Alms, Chapter 5: Life Expectancy Gregory Clark (UC Davis economics faculty page; chapter from the book Farewell to Alms)

    “Life expectancy at birth in England averaged only 37 years between 1540 and 1800.”
  6. E6 The Determinants of Mortality Journal of Economic Perspectives (Cutler, Deaton, Lleras-Muney) · 2006

    “even in 1700, life expectancy at birth in England—after the Netherlands, the richest country in the world at the time—was only 37 years”
  7. E7 The Determinants of Mortality Journal of Economic Perspectives (Cutler, Deaton, Lleras-Muney) · 2006

    “By 1820, life expectancy at birth in England was about 41 years, up six years over the previous century.”
  8. E8 Microsoft Word - chapter6-2003.doc (Professor Clark, Econ 110B, Chapter 6) UC Davis Economics (Prof. G. Clark course reading) · 2003

    “The life expectancy of French women in the late 1960s was 75.4, in contrast to the 25.7 mentioned above for the 1740s.”
  9. E9 Demografía del Siglo XVIII: Crecimiento y Transición StudyLib (uploaded academic/course text; author not shown) · 13 October 2015

    “En Francia, por ejemplo, se situaban sobre los 27 años.”

Reasoning

Independent historical sources put life expectancy at birth in 18th-century France at about 28 in the latter half of the century (E4), 25.7 for French women in the 1740s (E8) and about 27 (E9). All of these fall within the 25–32 band set by the criteria. However, England, then one of the richest countries, had a life expectancy at birth of about 37 in 1700 (E6), and averaged 37 between 1540 and 1800 (E5). So the figure of 28 fits some major populations of the era but understates others, which makes the claim broadly accurate rather than precise.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “About 300 years ago, life expectancy was around 28.” (said 29 March 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_11e58a1e090b, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_11e58a1e090b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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All of them

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