Synthesizing the 1918 flu virus from scratch would be difficult but far from impossible.
Research failed Research could not run for this claim; not scored.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judge as of October 2005, against the state of knowledge then (and documented expert assessment of that period). TRUE: authoritative sources (e.g., the 2005 Science/Nature papers on the reconstruction of the 1918 influenza virus, CDC/NIH statements, published virology commentary, or later retrospective accounts of 2005 capabilities) show that de novo synthesis of the 1918 influenza virus from its published genome sequence was technically achievable by a competent laboratory, i.e. technically demanding but feasible with then-existing reverse-genetics and gene-synthesis methods. MOSTLY TRUE: the above holds but with a minor qualification (e.g. feasibility demonstrated only for related influenza viruses, or requiring resources somewhat greater than the claim implies). MIXED: expert sources of the period are genuinely split on whether synthesis from published sequence was feasible outside a handful of elite labs. MOSTLY FALSE: evidence shows synthesis was possible only in principle and in practice far beyond the reach of all but a uniquely equipped state programme, so that 'far from impossible' overstates a real underlying capability. FALSE: evidence shows the full genome had not been published or that de novo synthesis of such a virus was not technically possible in 2005 (e.g. the reconstruction relied on material unavailable from sequence alone and no synthetic route existed).
Set before the research began.
Reasoning
Research or judging failed: research_extract:c_f365b974910a: refusal
Cite this claim
Ray Kurzweil, “Synthesizing the 1918 flu virus from scratch would be difficult but far from impossible.” (said October 2005). Verdict: research failed. Reliability API, claim c_f365b974910a, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f365b974910a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil
-
Resolved false
“Moderna, they actually gathered several billion different possibilities for what could cause COVID.”
-
Resolved true
“The US government has a plan to actually create new vaccines within a few months to three months.”
The US government has a plan to create new vaccines within a few months to three months.
-
Mostly true
“US researchers are now testing this optimized flu vaccine on human subjects.”
As of May 2020, US researchers are testing the Flinders-optimized flu vaccine on human subjects.
-
Mostly true
“created a turbo-charged flu vaccine in part by using a biology simulator that used AI to find drugs that activate the human immune system.”
-
Resolved true
“There are promising new technologies, like RNA interference, that could be harnessed.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.