ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“my current opinion is that sharp jumps in intelligence are possible, likely, and constitute the dominant probability.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, author of chapter 2008 Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk (MIRI)

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

In Yudkowsky's opinion at the time, which he said did not rest on a precise calculation using a precisely confirmed theory, sharp jumps in intelligence are possible and likely, and constitute the dominant probability.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

A probability judgment about future AI development with no horizon.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “In Yudkowsky's opinion at the time, which he said did not rest on a precise calculation using a precisely confirmed theory, sharp jumps in intelligence are possible and likely, and constitute the dominant probability.” (said 2008). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_f0dfaaad0ded, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f0dfaaad0ded

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mostly false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”

    Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.

  2. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  4. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”

    GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.