ClaimsDario Amodei

“while I think uploading is almost certainly possible in principle, in practice it faces significant technological and societal challenges, even with powerful AI, that likely put it outside the 5-10 year window we are discussing.”

Dario Amodei, essay author 17 August 2015 Machines of Loving Grace (darioamodei.com)

Prediction Science and research methods

Mind uploading is almost certainly possible in principle but likely will not be achieved within the 5-10 year window of powerful AI.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Concerns the 5-10 year window after powerful AI, which has not ended.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “Mind uploading is almost certainly possible in principle but likely will not be achieved within the 5-10 year window of powerful AI.” (said 17 August 2015). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_ef8049fd55e5, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ef8049fd55e5

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Dario Amodei, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Dario Amodei

  1. Mostly false Prediction 23 September 2026
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  2. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2026
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  3. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”

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  4. Resolved false Prediction 10 March 2025
    “And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”

    Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 10 March 2025
    “We may actually hit that this year”

    Anthropic's models may reach AI Safety Level 3 in 2025.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.