ClaimsNassim Taleb

“it had been reported that Trump lost a billion dollars of his own money.”

Nassim Taleb, author 11 April 2018 Nassim Nicholas Taleb Interview (Art of Manliness)

Factual Other

It had been reported that Donald Trump lost a billion dollars of his own money.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2018-04-11. True: before that date, credible media reported that Donald Trump lost roughly a billion dollars of his own money or more. Examples would be the 2016 NYT report on his 1995 tax return showing a $916 million loss, or reporting on 1980s–90s losses of over $1 billion. Mostly true: there were reports of losses near $1 billion (e.g. $916 million), or the losses were reported but were not clearly his personal money as opposed to business or creditors' money. Mixed: the reports involved losses of a different scale or nature, such as business losses mostly borne by lenders, so 'his own money' is clearly disputed. Mostly false: there were reports only of much smaller losses. False: no such reporting existed before that date.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Trump’s tax returns: the facts we know PolitiFact · 3 October 2016

    “In 1995, Trump reported a $916 million loss, according to the three pages of returns obtained and verified by the New York Times in September.”
  2. E2 Spinning Trump's Taxes - FactCheck.org FactCheck.org · 3 October 2016

    “The documents show that Trump reported a net operating loss of $916 million in 1995”
  3. E3 How Trump's Atlantic City gamble went bust. Mother Jones · 20 January 2016

    “While large institutional lenders suffered the worst hit, minor investors who had bought the bonds and small-business owners who had done business with Trump’s casinos lost big, too, according to the Post.”
  4. E4 How Trump's Atlantic City gamble went bust. Mother Jones · 20 January 2016

    “The Post also found that Trump may have exaggerated his personal wealth: The mogul said in 1990 that he was worth $1.4 billion, but Forbes estimated he was worth $500 million.”

Reasoning

Before 2018-04-11, PolitiFact (E1), citing the New York Times, and FactCheck.org (E2) reported that Trump's 1995 tax returns showed a $916 million loss. That is close to, but below, a billion dollars. FactCheck.org (E2) describes it as a net operating loss of $916 million reported on Trump's 1995 tax return. Mother Jones (E3) reports that lenders took the heaviest losses from his casino failures. So reporting on a loss of about a billion dollars existed, but the evidence doesn't clearly show the money was his own, which fits the 'mostly true' criterion.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “It had been reported that Donald Trump lost a billion dollars of his own money.” (said 11 April 2018). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_eeb0cdc17749, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_eeb0cdc17749

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nassim Taleb, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.