ClaimsNassim Taleb

“contrary to what political scientists say, effectively people do exercise the right to leave.”

Nassim Taleb, interviewee 10 July 2017 Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game (EconTalk) archived copy

Factual Other

Contrary to what political scientists say, people in practice do exercise the right to leave a jurisdiction.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True if evidence shows that people in practice do leave jurisdictions in meaningful numbers (migration between states, countries or municipalities, including in response to policy), and that this contradicts a position political scientists actually hold, namely that the right of exit is mostly theoretical or not exercised. Mostly true if exit is clearly exercised in practice, but political scientists are shown not to deny it as a group, so the 'contrary to' framing overstates their position. Mixed if exit happens but is shown to be rare or tightly constrained, so the evidence is balanced. Mostly false if studies show that exit is rarely exercised and that the political-science view broadly holds. False if the evidence shows people effectively do not exercise exit.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 How Authoritarian Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany | International Organization | Cambridge Core Cambridge University Press (International Organization) · 4 March 2023

    “As of 2019, about 125 million of the world's 270 million migrants emigrated from an autocracy,”
  2. E2 How Authoritarian Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany | International Organization | Cambridge Core Cambridge University Press (International Organization) · 4 March 2023

    “Instead, most modern autocracies employ a selective emigration policy that allows some exit but limits the right to specific individuals or groups.”
  3. E3 How Authoritarian Governments Decide Who Emigrates: Evidence from East Germany | International Organization | Cambridge Core Cambridge University Press (International Organization) · 4 March 2023

    “Indeed, evidence suggests that higher local emigration rates in the 1980s reduced the magnitude of protest in 1989.”
  4. E4 Taking Voice Seriously | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core Cambridge University Press (Perspectives on Politics) · 4 December 2023

    “Without the capacity to exit, citizens have no power.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows that people leave jurisdictions in large numbers: E1 reports that about 125 million of the world's 270 million migrants had emigrated from autocracies. E3 adds that evidence suggests higher local emigration rates in 1980s East Germany reduced the magnitude of protest in 1989. However, E4, a political-science article, states that without the capacity to exit citizens have no power, which treats exit as important rather than dismissing it. E2 likewise studies exit as a real, though selectively restricted, practice. Exit is clearly exercised, but the evidence does not show that political scientists as a group deny it, so the "contrary to" framing overstates their position.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Contrary to what political scientists say, people in practice do exercise the right to leave a jurisdiction.” (said 10 July 2017). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_b7981bd0815a, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b7981bd0815a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nassim Taleb, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  3. Mostly true Factual 11 April 2018
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    Only a third of Roman emperors died in their bed.

  4. Mostly true Factual 11 April 2018
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  5. Resolved false Factual 10 July 2017
    “It's not a Republic.”

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.