ClaimsDario Amodei

“for coding, we're going to see very serious things by the end of 2025,”

Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO 28 February 2025 Hard Fork - Anthropic's C.E.O. Dario Amodei on Surviving the A.I. Endgame Transcript (Podscripts (Hard Fork)) archived copy

Prediction AI capabilities

By the end of 2025, AI will do very serious things in coding.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

'Very serious things' in coding means AI going well beyond autocomplete to substantial, largely autonomous software engineering. True: by 31 Dec 2025, evidence shows AI systems doing substantial real-world coding work. Examples: widely deployed agentic coding tools that complete multi-file or multi-hour engineering tasks with little supervision, credible reports that major companies get a large share of their code from AI, or top scores on demanding coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified at roughly 70% or above. Mostly true: clear major advances that fall somewhat short of autonomous serious engineering, for example strong benchmark results but limited real deployment. Mixed: some advances but mostly incremental. Mostly false: AI coding stayed mainly assistive (suggestions, small snippets), with only demos of anything more. False: dated evidence from late 2025 shows AI coding capability and use essentially unchanged from early 2025.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Anthropic acquires Bun as Claude Code hits $1B Anthropic · 3 December 2025 Own record

    “In November, Claude Code achieved a significant milestone: just six months after becoming available to the public, it reached $1 billion in run-rate revenue.”

  2. E2 Microsoft CEO says up to 30% of the company's code was written by AI | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 29 April 2025

    “During a fireside chat with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg at Meta’s LlamaCon conference on Tuesday, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said that 20% to 30% of code inside the company’s repositories was “written by software” — meaning AI.”

  3. E3 SWE-Bench Verified WorldNeural

    “| Claude Sonnet 4.5 → | 77.2 | Self-reported * | 2025-09-29 | View source ↗”

  4. E4 Is 90% of code at Anthropic being written by AIs? — LessWrong LessWrong (post by ryan_greenblatt) · 22 October 2025

    “This is a reasonable summary of what Dario said when talking to Marc Benioff, but my current understanding is that it isn't true that AIs are writing 90% of code at Anthropic.”

Reasoning

The criteria's examples of "very serious things" in coding are met by 31 Dec 2025. In April 2025, Microsoft's CEO said 20–30% of the code in the company's repositories was written by AI (E2). A third-party aggregator lists a 77.2% SWE-bench Verified score for Claude Sonnet 4.5 dated September 2025, though the score is self-reported (E3). Anthropic's official announcement says Claude Code reached $1B in run-rate revenue by November 2025, which points to wide real-world use of an agentic coding tool (E1). E4 questions the specific claim that 90% of Anthropic's code is AI-written, but it does not undercut the broader capability and adoption shown here.

Cite this claim

Dario Amodei, “By the end of 2025, AI will do very serious things in coding.” (said 28 February 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_ec64e8bb2ea9, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ec64e8bb2ea9

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Dario Amodei

  1. Mostly false Prediction 23 September 2026
    “We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”

    Amodei said that "we" believe AI for biology is on an exponential trend similar to the one he described for AI in mathematics.

  2. Resolved false Prediction 11 November 2024
    “But I would guess that in another 10 months, we’ll probably get pretty close. We’ll be at least 90%.”

    Amodei guessed that within about 10 months AI models would probably get pretty close on typical real-world programming tasks, reaching at least 90%.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 11 November 2024
    “in 10 months we’ve gone from 3% to 50% on this task. And I think in another year we’ll probably be at 90%.”

    Amodei said that, after progress from 3% to 50% on SWE-bench in 10 months, state-of-the-art models would probably be at about 90% in another year, while adding that he did not know and it might be less.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 11 November 2024
    “I would guess a year from now, the models can do this very, very reliably.”

    Amodei guessed that by about November 2025, AI models would be able to perform computer-use tasks very, very reliably.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2026
    “We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”

    Anthropic will be fine, and the impact of the supply chain risk designation on it will be fairly small.

All of them

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