ClaimsElon Musk

“I think, at the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don't know, a factor of four or five.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO 27 January 2022 Tesla Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript (Motley Fool)

Prediction Economics and markets

Musk said he thinks that once cars are autonomous, the cost of transport may drop by something like a factor of four or five.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

The claim depends on cars becoming autonomous and gives no date, so it cannot be checked against a fixed deadline.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “Musk said he thinks that once cars are autonomous, the cost of transport may drop by something like a factor of four or five.” (said 27 January 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_eb9867a37ec9, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_eb9867a37ec9

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Elon Musk, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Elon Musk

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    “In the 2016 post, Musk says: “A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.””

    A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 27 January 2026
    “Then we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month.”

    Tesla hopes to get European regulatory approval for supervised full self-driving in February 2026.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 30 December 2024
    “AfD is going to win an epic victory!”

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  4. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
    “for 2023, Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be next year.”

    Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
    “I think there would be demand for that, too.”

    Musk said Tesla was not committing to it, but he thought there would also be demand for the potential of about 2 million vehicles in 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.