Amodei said that the trend from earlier models to state-of-the-art models shows every sign that, two or three years after August 2023, there will be a real problem.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
deadline 2026 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Amodei said that the trend from earlier models to state-of-the-art models shows every sign that, two or three years after August 2023, there will be a real problem.” (said 8 August 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_e477b9beebc0, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e477b9beebc0
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
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Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
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Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
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Mostly true
“We may actually hit that this year”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.