ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“Tbc I do understand that if my actual policy proposals are not adopted -- and instead some distorted "vibe" is used as an excuse for government takeover -- there exists a real possibility that it will not be a private company but a government! that kills everyone on Earth.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, writing on X 29 March 2024 Post by @ESYudkowsky on X, 2024-03-29 (X)

Prediction AI policy and governance

If Yudkowsky's policy proposals are not adopted and a distorted version is used to justify government takeover, a government rather than a private company might kill everyone on Earth.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Speculative conditional about a 'real possibility', with no time horizon.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “If Yudkowsky's policy proposals are not adopted and a distorted version is used to justify government takeover, a government rather than a private company might kill everyone on Earth.” (said 29 March 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_e3909d17c9e3, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e3909d17c9e3

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

  2. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  3. Mostly false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”

    Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”

    GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.