ClaimsMichael Burry

“All of Hong Kong’s massive tech stocks became massive since 2007”

Michael Burry, posting on X 26 February 2026 Post by @michaeljburry on X, 2026-02-26 (X)

Factual Economics and markets

All of Hong Kong's massive tech stocks (Alibaba, JD, PDD, Baidu, Trip.com) became massive after 2007.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2026-02-26 for the companies named (Alibaba, JD, PDD, Baidu, Trip.com). A company counts as having 'become massive since 2007' if, in 2007, it was not yet public or its market value was a small fraction (no more than about one-tenth) of its later peak. True: this holds for all five companies. Mostly true: it holds for all five, with a minor slip in a detail (such as one company's listing being in the US rather than Hong Kong). Mixed: it fails for one company that was already large in 2007, while the rest fit. Mostly false: it fails for two or more companies. False: most of the named companies were already near their eventual scale by 2007.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (11)

  1. E1 Baidu - Wikipedia Wikipedia Own record

    “Baidu went public on Wall Street through a variable interest entity (VIE) based in the Cayman Islands on 5 August 2005.”

  2. E2 Our Story Trip.com Group

    “We capped the year with a successful listing on NASDAQ on December 9.”

  3. E3 Alibaba Group - Wikipedia Wikipedia Own record

    “On 19 September 2014, Alibaba's American initial public offering (IPO) on the New York Stock Exchange raised US$25 billion, giving the company a market value of US$231 billion and, by far, then the largest IPO in world history.”

  4. E4 Alibaba Group - Wikipedia Wikipedia Own record

    “Alibaba.com went public at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2007, and was delisted again in 2012.”

  5. E5 Baidu - Wikipedia Wikipedia Own record

    “Baidu went public on Wall Street through a variable interest entity (VIE) based in the Cayman Islands on 5 August 2005.”

  6. E6 Alibaba Group - Wikipedia Wikipedia Own record

    “Alibaba.com went public at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2007, and was delisted again in 2012.”

  7. E7 Alibaba Group - Wikipedia Wikipedia Own record

    “In 2005, Yahoo! invested in Alibaba through a variable interest entity (VIE) structure, buying a 40% stake in the company for US$1 billion.”

  8. E8 Baidu (BIDU) Market Cap & Net Worth StockAnalysis.com

    “| Dec 31, 2007 | 13.14B | 253.87% |”

  9. E9 Baidu (BIDU) Market Cap & Net Worth StockAnalysis.com

    “| Dec 29, 2017 | 81.33B | 42.95% |”

  10. E10 Trip.com Group (TCOM) Market Cap & Net Worth StockAnalysis.com

    “| Dec 31, 2007 | 3.75B | 87.81% |”

  11. E11 Trip.com Group (TCOM) Market Cap & Net Worth StockAnalysis.com

    “| Dec 31, 2025 | 47.10B | 5.11% |”

Reasoning

The evidence shows Alibaba Group's own IPO came in 2014; the 2007 Hong Kong listing was only its Alibaba.com subsidiary (E3, E4). Trip.com's year-end 2007 market cap of 3.75B is under one-tenth of its 47.10B value at the end of 2025 (E10, E11), so both fit. Baidu's 2007 market cap of 13.14B is about 16% of the 81.33B shown for 2017 (E8, E9), which is above the one-tenth threshold. However, the evidence does not give Baidu's actual peak, so whether it fails the criterion cannot be confirmed. There is no evidence at all on JD or PDD, so the claim cannot be judged for all five companies.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “All of Hong Kong's massive tech stocks (Alibaba, JD, PDD, Baidu, Trip.com) became massive after 2007.” (said 26 February 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_e1c575b1ed67, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e1c575b1ed67

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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