ClaimsMichael Burry

“Both stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump’s election, and they put in a giant head-and-shoulders-and-elbows top for added emphasis.”

Michael Burry, X post 11 October 2026 Post by @michaeljburry on X, 2026-10-11 (X)

Factual Economics and markets

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump's election and formed a large head-and-shoulders top.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2026-10-11 for Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC). 'Gains since Trump's election' means from the close on 2024-11-05 to the peak reached afterwards. 'Essentially all retraced' means the price on or just before 2026-10-11 was at or below roughly 10–15% of that gain above the 2024-11-05 close (or below that close). The second part is a large head-and-shoulders top, judged as recognisable on price charts: a left shoulder, a higher head and a lower right shoulder, followed by a break below the neckline. TRUE: both stocks meet the retracement test and the charts show a recognisable head-and-shoulders pattern. MOSTLY TRUE: both stocks retraced most of their gains (roughly 80–85%+), or the chart pattern is debatable, but the retracement substantially holds. MIXED: only one of the two stocks meets the retracement test. MOSTLY FALSE: both stocks retraced only about half to 80% of their gains. FALSE: both stocks kept most of their post-election gains as of 2026-10-11.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Michael Burry Takes Aim at Another Trump-Era Trade Yahoo Finance (article by Lockridge Okoth, originally BeInCrypto) · 11 October 2026

    “Fannie Mae closed at $1.39 on Election Day 2024, according to Yahoo Finance data. It peaked at $15.31 on September 11, 2025, and closed Friday at $4.04.”
  2. E2 Michael Burry Takes Aim at Another Trump-Era Trade Yahoo Finance (article by Lockridge Okoth, originally BeInCrypto) · 11 October 2026

    “Freddie Mac followed the same path, from $1.20 to $14.15 and back to $3.68.”
  3. E3 Michael Burry Takes Aim at Another Trump-Era Trade Yahoo Finance (article by Lockridge Okoth, originally BeInCrypto) · 11 October 2026

    “That is a 74% drop from the top, erasing about 80% of the post-election rally.”

Reasoning

According to E1, Fannie Mae closed at $1.39 on Election Day 2024, peaked at $15.31 and closed at $4.04 just before 2026-10-11. That erases about 81% of the gain and leaves about 19% of it, which E3 also puts at roughly 80%. E2 shows Freddie Mac followed the same path, from $1.20 to $14.15 and back to $3.68. That is also about 81% retraced, with about 19% of the gain left. Neither stock meets the 'essentially all' test, which allows at most 10–15% of the gain to remain, but both sit at the edge of the 80–85%+ range for mostly true. The evidence does not describe the head-and-shoulders pattern, so that part of the claim cannot be confirmed.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump's election and formed a large head-and-shoulders top.” (said 11 October 2026). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_7c37e0203966, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_7c37e0203966

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Michael Burry

  1. Mostly false Factual 3 November 2026
    “The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money 3 years in a row during the mid-1970s.”

    The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s.

  2. Mostly true Factual 30 October 2026
    “It’s a perfect storm for Build-A-Bear (BBW), a one-of-one retailer now heavily shorted, 25% of the float, almost 9 days to cover.”

    Build-A-Bear (BBW) is heavily shorted, with short interest at 25% of the float and almost 9 days to cover.

  3. Resolved true Factual 30 October 2026
    “Here is the link where I made the case last week that beneath the surface the October 6, 2026 record close in the S&P 500 looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.”

    Burry made the case the prior week that the October 6, 2026 S&P 500 record close looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.

  4. Mostly true Factual 24 October 2026
    “October 6, 2026 stands head to head with March 2000 as the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs”

    Across 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980, October 6, 2026 and March 2000 are the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs by almost any measure.

  5. Mostly false Factual 9 October 2026
    “By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets, and the indices continued to move higher.”

    By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise.

All of them

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