By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2026-10-09, about early 2000 (roughly January–March 2000). 'Bear market' means at least 20% below the stock's prior high. TRUE: market breadth data for a broad US universe (for example the S&P 500, NYSE or Russell 3000 constituents) show about 70–80% of stocks in bear markets in early 2000 (65–85% acceptable), and major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached higher levels during or after that period (for example the March 2000 peaks). MOSTLY TRUE: the share is about 55–65% or 85–90%, or the figure holds only for a narrower but still broad universe, while indices rose. MIXED: the breadth figure is supported but the indices did not generally rise (for example only Nasdaq rose while the Dow and S&P fell), or the reverse. MOSTLY FALSE: the share is substantially lower (about 35–55%), though breadth was clearly narrow. FALSE: well under a third of stocks were in bear markets, or the major indices fell throughout early 2000.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Market Tops are a Process, Not an Event FinancialSense (Chris Puplava, contributor) · 3 November 2025
“When the stock market peaked in 2000, 53.33% of stocks were already down by 20% or more from their highs!”
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E2 Michael Burry Says S&P 500 Looks 'Uncannily Close' To 2000 — And 'Busted' Stocks Could Be The Winners Stocktwits · 25 October 2026
“In 2000, 32% were Busted, with a median decline of 52%.”
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E3 Market Tops are a Process, Not an Event FinancialSense (Chris Puplava, contributor) · 3 November 2025
“At the bull market top in early 2000, furthermore, the comparable percentage stood at just 6.4%.”
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E4 S And P 500 Monthly Value In 2000 | StatMuse Money StatMuse · 29 December 2000
“| March 2000 | $1,366.42 | $1,552.87 | $1,346.62 | $1,498.58 | 26,156,200,000 |”
Reasoning
E1, an independent market analysis, reports that when the stock market peaked in 2000, 53.33% of stocks were already down 20% or more from their highs. That falls in the criteria's 35–55% band, which is well below the claimed 70–80%. E1's reference to the market peaking in 2000 and the March 2000 S&P 500 row in E4 (high of 1,552.87) are consistent with the indices still rising into early 2000. E2 uses a different 'busted' measure (32%) and E3's 6.4% figure is not clearly defined, so neither supports the higher share.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise.” (said 9 October 2026). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_c7dfff9474ec, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c7dfff9474ec
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Michael Burry
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Mostly false
“The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money 3 years in a row during the mid-1970s.”
The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s.
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Mostly true
“It’s a perfect storm for Build-A-Bear (BBW), a one-of-one retailer now heavily shorted, 25% of the float, almost 9 days to cover.”
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Resolved true
“Here is the link where I made the case last week that beneath the surface the October 6, 2026 record close in the S&P 500 looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.”
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Mostly true
“October 6, 2026 stands head to head with March 2000 as the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs”
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Mostly true
“Both stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump’s election, and they put in a giant head-and-shoulders-and-elbows top for added emphasis.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.