ClaimsMichael Burry

“By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets, and the indices continued to move higher.”

Michael Burry, X post 9 October 2026 Post by @michaeljburry on X, 2026-10-09 (X)

Factual Economics and markets

By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2026-10-09, about early 2000 (roughly January–March 2000). 'Bear market' means at least 20% below the stock's prior high. TRUE: market breadth data for a broad US universe (for example the S&P 500, NYSE or Russell 3000 constituents) show about 70–80% of stocks in bear markets in early 2000 (65–85% acceptable), and major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached higher levels during or after that period (for example the March 2000 peaks). MOSTLY TRUE: the share is about 55–65% or 85–90%, or the figure holds only for a narrower but still broad universe, while indices rose. MIXED: the breadth figure is supported but the indices did not generally rise (for example only Nasdaq rose while the Dow and S&P fell), or the reverse. MOSTLY FALSE: the share is substantially lower (about 35–55%), though breadth was clearly narrow. FALSE: well under a third of stocks were in bear markets, or the major indices fell throughout early 2000.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Market Tops are a Process, Not an Event FinancialSense (Chris Puplava, contributor) · 3 November 2025

    “When the stock market peaked in 2000, 53.33% of stocks were already down by 20% or more from their highs!”
  2. E2 Michael Burry Says S&P 500 Looks 'Uncannily Close' To 2000 — And 'Busted' Stocks Could Be The Winners Stocktwits · 25 October 2026

    “In 2000, 32% were Busted, with a median decline of 52%.”
  3. E3 Market Tops are a Process, Not an Event FinancialSense (Chris Puplava, contributor) · 3 November 2025

    “At the bull market top in early 2000, furthermore, the comparable percentage stood at just 6.4%.”
  4. E4 S And P 500 Monthly Value In 2000 | StatMuse Money StatMuse · 29 December 2000

    “| March 2000 | $1,366.42 | $1,552.87 | $1,346.62 | $1,498.58 | 26,156,200,000 |”

Reasoning

E1, an independent market analysis, reports that when the stock market peaked in 2000, 53.33% of stocks were already down 20% or more from their highs. That falls in the criteria's 35–55% band, which is well below the claimed 70–80%. E1's reference to the market peaking in 2000 and the March 2000 S&P 500 row in E4 (high of 1,552.87) are consistent with the indices still rising into early 2000. E2 uses a different 'busted' measure (32%) and E3's 6.4% figure is not clearly defined, so neither supports the higher share.

Cite this claim

Michael Burry, “By early 2000, 70-80% of stocks were in bear markets while the market indices continued to rise.” (said 9 October 2026). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_c7dfff9474ec, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c7dfff9474ec

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Michael Burry

  1. Mostly false Factual 3 November 2026
    “The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money 3 years in a row during the mid-1970s.”

    The Superinvestors of Graham & Doddsville all lost money three years in a row during the mid-1970s.

  2. Mostly true Factual 30 October 2026
    “It’s a perfect storm for Build-A-Bear (BBW), a one-of-one retailer now heavily shorted, 25% of the float, almost 9 days to cover.”

    Build-A-Bear (BBW) is heavily shorted, with short interest at 25% of the float and almost 9 days to cover.

  3. Resolved true Factual 30 October 2026
    “Here is the link where I made the case last week that beneath the surface the October 6, 2026 record close in the S&P 500 looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.”

    Burry made the case the prior week that the October 6, 2026 S&P 500 record close looks more like the March 2000 top than any other record high since 1980.

  4. Mostly true Factual 24 October 2026
    “October 6, 2026 stands head to head with March 2000 as the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs”

    Across 982 S&P 500 record closes since 1980, October 6, 2026 and March 2000 are the two most narrow, thin, soft new highs by almost any measure.

  5. Mostly true Factual 11 October 2026
    “Both stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump’s election, and they put in a giant head-and-shoulders-and-elbows top for added emphasis.”

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac stocks have retraced essentially all their gains since Trump's election and formed a large head-and-shoulders top.

All of them

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