ClaimsRodney Brooks

“Today almost all new cars have level 1 autonomy features, and level 2 autonomy is becoming more common in production products.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 12 January 2017 Unexpected Consequences of Self Driving Cars (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Factual Technology

As of January 2017, almost all new cars have level 1 autonomy features and level 2 autonomy is becoming more common in production products.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is judged as of January 2017 using the SAE levels of driving automation. Level 1 features include adaptive cruise control and lane-keeping assist; standard automatic emergency braking alone does not count as Level 1 under SAE J3016. True if industry data from around 2016–2017 shows that a large majority of new cars sold (in major markets such as the US or EU), roughly 80% or more, offered or included Level 1 features, and that Level 2 systems (such as Autopilot, Mercedes Drive Pilot/Distronic with steering, Volvo Pilot Assist) were spreading across production models. Mostly true if Level 2 was spreading and Level 1 penetration was a majority but well below 'almost all'. Mixed if one half holds and the other clearly does not. Mostly false if Level 1 features were present in only a minority of new cars, even though Level 2 was spreading. False if both parts were wrong.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 How Prevalent Are Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)? I-CAR (RTS portal) · 3 February 2017

    “Adaptive Cruise Control 1,967,787 Units or 11%”
  2. E2 How Prevalent Are Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS)? I-CAR (RTS portal) · 3 February 2017

    “Lane Departure Warning 3,465,230 Units or 20%”
  3. E3 Robot cars won't retire crash-test dummies anytime soon Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) · 10 November 2016

    “The technology to achieve Level 2 automated driving is available to consumers now. Driver assistance features that can control both the longitudinal and lateral position of the vehicle are available on at least 17 vehicle makes for 2016.”
  4. E4 Bosch analysis: driver assistance systems continue their strong advance Bosch (Netherlands press portal) · 15 March 2018

    “Although barely fitted in four percent of newly registered cars in Germany in 2013, in 2016, this function was installed in nearly one in five new cars (19 percent).”

Reasoning

The evidence shows Level 2 systems on at least 17 makes in 2016 [E3] and gives shares for single features: adaptive cruise control at 11% [E1], lane departure warning at 20% [E2] and an unnamed function at 19% in Germany [E4]. It has no figure for lane-keeping assist and no measure of the share of new cars with any Level 1 feature, so it does not establish whether Level 1 was in a minority or a majority of new cars, as the criteria require.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “As of January 2017, almost all new cars have level 1 autonomy features and level 2 autonomy is becoming more common in production products.” (said 12 January 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_df5d2910ca29, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_df5d2910ca29

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Rodney Brooks

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  2. Mixed Factual 29 September 2024
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  3. Mostly true Factual 29 September 2024
    “The Roomba was an easy sale, not just for its price, but because it did not demand that people had to install some infrastructure in their home environment before they could have a Roomba clean their…”

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  4. Mostly true Factual 1 January 2024
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  5. Resolved true Factual 22 June 2023
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    The San Francisco fire chief is unhappy with driverless vehicles in the city.

All of them

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