ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“I think that at some point the thing in there that is predicting how humans plan, predicting how humans talk, predicting how humans think, and needing to be at least as smart as the human it is predicting in order to do that, I suspect at some point there is a new coherence born within the system and something strange starts happening.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, interviewee 6 April 2023 Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Prediction AI capabilities

Yudkowsky suspects that, as the people a language model is pretending to be get smarter, at some point a new coherence will emerge within the system and something strange will start happening.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague, undefined 'new coherence' with no horizon.

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Yudkowsky suspects that, as the people a language model is pretending to be get smarter, at some point a new coherence will emerge within the system and something strange will start happening.” (said 6 April 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_de695c88fe50, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_de695c88fe50

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Eliezer Yudkowsky, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mixed Prediction 5 March 2024
    “Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”

    If a rival AI developer beats GPT-4 on general intelligence, OpenAI will be forced to release GPT-4.5.

  2. Mostly true Prediction February 2023
    “But I do feel quite confident that the upper range of that untapped potential is insufficient to outsmart all the living humans and implement the scenario that I'm worried about.”

    Yudkowsky said he felt quite confident that the upper range of the untapped potential of ChatGPT-style systems is insufficient to outsmart all living humans and carry out the catastrophe scenario he worries about.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “The current crop of people will not try it.”

    The current AI developers will not try the alignment approach he described (filtering training data to nice examples and training on it).

  4. Mostly false Prediction 6 April 2023
    “So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”

    Paul Christiano will probably win his forecast disagreement with Yudkowsky on an AI getting IMO gold by 2025, with prediction-market odds then running around 30%.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 6 April 2023
    “Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”

    AI alignment will not be solved within a few years.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.