Loss severities on foreclosed subprime mortgages rose during 2006 from 10-15% at the start of the year to 30-45% recently.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2006, when the letter was written. True: industry or remittance data show that loss severities on liquidated or foreclosed subprime mortgages rose during 2006 from about 10–15% early in the year to about 30–45% by the time of writing. Mostly true: severities rose sharply over that period, with start or end levels only modestly outside the stated ranges (within about 5 percentage points). Mixed: severities rose, but by clearly less than stated (for example ending at about 20–30%). Mostly false: severities were roughly flat or rose only slightly. False: severities did not rise, or fell, during 2006.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Conviction Amid Mark-to-Market Losses on the Subprime Short valuebeast.co.kr (third-party Korean commentary site) · 1 September 2006
“Loss severity had jumped from 10–15% at the start of the year to 30–45%, and one trade hit 63.53% in that month alone.”
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E2 RMBS CDS & Side Pockets - Some Good Questions (November 7, 2006 Q&A, English text) valuebeast.co.kr (reproduction of Michael Burry's Scion Capital Q&A) · 7 November 2006 Own record
“Is PPSI 2005-WLL1 representative of the rest of the portfolio? No. This is an example,”
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E3 Conviction Amid Mark-to-Market Losses on the Subprime Short (English translation of Burry's 2006 Q3 letter) valuebeast.co.kr · 1 September 2006 Own record
“Loss severity had jumped from 10–15% at the start of the year to 30–45%, and one trade hit 63.53% in that month alone.”
Reasoning
E3 and E6 are summaries of Burry's own Q3 2006 letter, and they only repeat its figures: severities went from 10–15% to 30–45%, with one trade at 63.53%. Neither cites independent industry or remittance data. E4 is Burry's own Q&A and gives no severity figures. No evidence independent of the claim shows what loss severities on subprime mortgages actually were during 2006, so the claim cannot be checked against the criteria.
Cite this claim
Michael Burry, “Loss severities on foreclosed subprime mortgages rose during 2006 from 10-15% at the start of the year to 30-45% recently.” (said 2006). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d9717b81964c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d9717b81964c
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.