As of March 2021, real yields of reserve currency sovereign bonds are negative and the lowest ever.

Judge as of March 2021. There are two parts: (a) real yields on reserve-currency sovereign bonds (USD, EUR, JPY, and GBP if included) were negative; (b) they were the lowest ever. Real yields are measured by inflation-linked bond yields, such as the 10-year TIPS, or by nominal yields minus inflation. TRUE: both parts hold. The yields, as an aggregate or for most of these currencies, were negative and at or within about 0.1 percentage point of their record lows on the main measure, and no standard measure shows clearly lower readings earlier. MOSTLY TRUE: they were negative and within about 0.25 percentage point of record lows, or at a record on one standard measure but not another. MIXED: they were negative but clearly above record lows set earlier, such as in 2020, 2012 or ex-post readings from the 1940s or 1970s. In that case one of the two parts holds. MOSTLY FALSE: real yields were negative for only some reserve currencies and not near record lows. FALSE: real yields were generally positive.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Investing In Light Of The Big Cycle Ray Dalio (Principled Perspectives newsletter, raydalio.substack.com) · 24 February 2026 Own record

   “Real yields of reserve currency sovereign bonds, at the time of my writing this, are near the lowest ever, and nominal bond yields are around 0 percent, also near the lowest ever.”

2. E2 Investing In Light Of The Big Cycle Ray Dalio (Principled Perspectives newsletter, raydalio.substack.com) · 24 February 2026 Own record

   “As shown real yields of cash are even lower, though not as negative as they were in the 1930–45 and 1915–20 great monetization periods.”

Both evidence items (E1, E2) are Ray Dalio's own newsletter, which restates that real yields on reserve-currency sovereign bonds were near the lowest ever. Neither item gives independent data, such as TIPS yields or inflation-adjusted yields, for March 2021 or for earlier record lows. E2 says real cash yields were less negative than in 1915–20 and 1930–45, but it makes no comparable statement about bond yields. With only the subject's own statements, neither part of the criteria can be checked independently.