Musk said he did not think that whoever might figure "it" out in about five years would be any of the car companies "we're aware of", and added that he was guessing.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
Prediction with no horizon, and about what Tesla is 'aware of' and what counts as catching up.
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “Musk said he did not think that whoever might figure "it" out in about five years would be any of the car companies "we're aware of", and added that he was guessing.” (said 26 January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d4e89985ab4b, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d4e89985ab4b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Elon Musk
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Mixed
“In the 2016 post, Musk says: “A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.””
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Mostly false
“Then we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month.”
Tesla hopes to get European regulatory approval for supervised full self-driving in February 2026.
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Mostly false
“AfD is going to win an epic victory!”
The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election.
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Mostly false
“for 2023, Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be next year.”
Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024.
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Mostly false
“I think there would be demand for that, too.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.