ClaimsNate Silver

“Considerably higher death rate in the UK than the US.”

Nate Silver, on X 27 March 2020 Post by @NateSilver538 on X, 2020-03-27 (X)

Factual Biosecurity

As of late March 2020, the UK has a considerably higher coronavirus death rate than the US, with similar positives per capita.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Use data as of about 2020-03-27 (JHU CSSE, Our World in Data, or Worldometers). 'Death rate' here means deaths relative to confirmed cases or per capita, as Silver's context indicates. The claim has two parts. TRUE: the UK's COVID-19 death rate was considerably higher than the US's (about 1.5 times or more), AND confirmed cases per capita were broadly similar (within about a factor of 1.5). MOSTLY TRUE: the UK's death rate was clearly higher, but somewhat less than 'considerably', or the cases per capita differed slightly more than 'similar' implies. MIXED: only one of the two parts holds. MOSTLY FALSE: the UK's death rate was only marginally higher, or higher only on a measure the claim does not use. FALSE: the UK's death rate was not higher than the US's.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (5)

  1. E1 Confirmed COVID-19 infections top 100,000 in US, deaths at over 1,500: Johns Hopkins University KTVU (AP wire story) · 27 March 2020

    “The number of confirmed novel coronavirus infections has topped 100,000 in the U.S. and deaths total more than 1,500, according to numbers from Johns Hopkins University.”

  2. E2 Coronavirus: US overtakes China with most cases BBC News · 26 March 2020

    “The US now has more confirmed cases of coronavirus than any other country, with more than 86,000 positive tests.”

  3. E3 [PDF] Week 13, 22-28 March 2020 CDTR - ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) · 27 March 2020

    “The deaths have been reported from Italy (8 165), Spain (4 089), China (3 298), Iran (2 234), France (1 696), United States (1 296), United Kingdom (578),”

  4. E4 [PDF] Week 13, 22-28 March 2020 CDTR - ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) · 27 March 2020

    “As of 27 March 2020, 265 421 cases have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: Italy (80 539), Spain (56 188), Germany (42 288), France (29 155), United Kingdom (11 658), Netherlands (7 431),”

  5. E5 [PDF] Week 13, 22-28 March 2020 CDTR - ECDC European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) · 27 March 2020

    “As of 27 March 2020, 15 795 deaths have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: Italy (8 165), Spain (4 089), France (1 696), United Kingdom (578),”

Reasoning

The evidence shows the UK's deaths relative to confirmed cases were about 3 times the US's (578 of 11,658 in [E3][E5][E4], against 1,296 deaths and more than 86,000–100,000 cases in [E3][E2][E1]). No evidence item gives population figures, so the evidence cannot test the claim that cases per capita were similar. The criteria need that second part to choose between true, mostly true and mixed.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “As of late March 2020, the UK has a considerably higher coronavirus death rate than the US, with similar positives per capita.” (said 27 March 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d429470de9f6, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d429470de9f6

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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