ClaimsWarren Buffett

“That amount is quite a hurdle but one that I believe we will clear in many, if not most, years.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 2007 Berkshire Hathaway 2006 Letter to Shareholders (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Count the full years 2007–2016 (the ten years after the prediction) in which the insurance operations Buffett called 'other' in the letter (the smaller primary insurers, outside GEICO, General Re and BH Reinsurance, as Berkshire reports them in its annual reports, including the later 'Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group' if that is how the same operations are reported) had a pre-tax underwriting gain of at least $450 million. True: the threshold was cleared in a majority of those years (6 or more of 10). Mostly true: cleared in 4–5 years, which is still 'many' but not 'most'. Mixed: cleared in 3 years. Mostly false: cleared in 1–2 years. False: never cleared in the period. Use restated segment figures where Berkshire restated them.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (7)

  1. E1 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal year 2011 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) · February 2012 Own record

    “| Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group | | | 242 | | | | 268 | | | | 84 |”

  2. E2 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2010 Annual Report (Exhibit 99.1) U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) · February 2011 Own record

    “| Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group | | | 268 | | | | 84 | | | | 210 |”

  3. E3 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 2016 Annual Report Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · February 2017 Own record

    “Pre-tax underwriting gain ......................................................”

  4. E4 2008 Letter Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 27 February 2009 Own record

    “Our smaller insurers are just as outstanding in their own way as the “big three,” regularly delivering valuable float to us at a negative cost. We aggregate their results below under “Other Primary.””

  5. E5 2008 Letter Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 27 February 2009 Own record

    “The underwriting profits signify that all four provided funds to Berkshire last year without cost, just as they did in 2007.”

  6. E6 2015ar.pdf Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 8 August 2015 Own record

    “(3) Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group (“BHRG”) and (4) Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group.”

  7. E7 2015ar.pdf Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 8 August 2015 Own record

    “Berkshire has now operated at an underwriting profit for 13 consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $26.2 billion.”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 give table rows for 'Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group' (242, 268, 84 and 268, 84, 210), but the quotes do not say what these figures measure or which year each column covers, so under the criteria they cannot be counted as underwriting gains for particular years. Even if they were read as 2008–2011 figures below $450 million, the evidence includes no figures for 2007 or 2012–2016. E3 is only a heading, and E4–E7 give qualitative statements without Primary Group dollar amounts. The number of years in 2007–2016 that cleared $450 million cannot be determined from this evidence.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years.” (said 2007). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_cd6d5521e905, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cd6d5521e905

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

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  3. Resolved true Prediction 2007
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  4. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2002
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  5. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2002
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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.