AI's rate of improvement is already starting to disrupt job demand in software development.

Judge as of 2026-01-09. True: credible labour-market data or studies from before or around this date show that AI is starting to reduce demand for software developers. Examples are falling job postings or hiring for software roles, especially entry-level, that the data or studies attribute at least partly to AI. Mostly true: the evidence shows reduced demand, but AI's share in causing it is supported only by some studies and not by others. Mixed: the evidence on AI's effect on demand for developers is genuinely split. Mostly false: demand for developers fell, but credible analyses attribute this mainly to other causes (interest rates, the end of over-hiring after the pandemic), and the evidence for an AI effect is thin. False: the data show no reduction in demand, or show demand rising.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Generative AI and the Redefinition of Entry-Level Software Work IZA Discussion Paper Series (IZA DP No. 18723), by Westby, Modestino and Cheng, Northeastern University · June 2026

   “In our setting, firms reduce the number of junior software vacancies and also redefine what counts as a qualified junior by increasing experience requirements within job titles”

2. E2 Generative AI and the Redefinition of Entry-Level Software Work IZA Discussion Paper Series (IZA DP No. 18723), by Westby, Modestino and Cheng, Northeastern University · June 2026

   “The event-study and triple-difference evidence make that interpretation more credible, but they do not imply that generative AI is the only force affecting software labor demand during this period.”

3. E3 U.S. software firms sharply reduced advertised developer vacancies after the 2022 peak, but through mid-2026 there is no clear public-evidence of falling junior employment or broad junior wage penalties; only an opt‑in developer survey hints at widening pay gaps between junior and senior staff. Workforce Futures (commonplace.workforcefutures.net), summarising an SSRN paper · 17 September 2026

   “Software-development postings fell 54% after ChatGPT’s release, the largest decline among the 41 Indeed occupational categories, but 58% of the fall from their 2022 peak predates the release.”

4. E4 What is really happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) · 30 April 2025

   “In a widely discussed paper, Brynjolfsson, Chandar, and Chen report a notable decline in employment among early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations, notably software developers and customer service representatives, since ChatGPT’s launch in 2022.”

Two sources show demand for software developers falling. E1 uses posting data to show firms cut junior software vacancies and raised experience requirements, and it points to generative AI as the cause. E4 reports Brynjolfsson et al.'s finding of lower early-career employment in AI-exposed jobs such as software development since ChatGPT launched. AI's share of the drop is disputed, though. E1 concedes in E2 that generative AI is not the only factor, and E3 notes that 58% of the fall in postings from their 2022 peak came before ChatGPT's release. Demand clearly fell, but only some of the evidence ties it to AI, which matches the criteria for mostly true.