Amodei said he is open to the perhaps absurd-sounding idea that 1000 years of progress could happen in 5-10 years, but very skeptical that 100 years of progress could happen in 1 year.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
The claim is vague and conditional on powerful AI arriving, with no fixed date.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Amodei said he is open to the perhaps absurd-sounding idea that 1000 years of progress could happen in 5-10 years, but very skeptical that 100 years of progress could happen in 1 year.” (said 17 August 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c5b7db3843b5, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c5b7db3843b5
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
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Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
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Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
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Mostly true
“We may actually hit that this year”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.