Dario Amodei does not expect RL training for longer-horizon tasks to require a substantial amount of additional compute.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
Prediction with no horizon and vague 'substantial' compute threshold.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Dario Amodei does not expect RL training for longer-horizon tasks to require a substantial amount of additional compute.” (said 8 August 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c24d3ebe54b9, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c24d3ebe54b9
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
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“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
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“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
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“We may actually hit that this year”
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