Yudkowsky said he would be quite surprised if AI progress slowed down a lot after reaching slightly above human level because the systems are trained on human text.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
Prediction about AI progress after reaching slightly above human level has no defined horizon and the terms are vague, and that point is not clearly reached.
Cite this claim
Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Yudkowsky said he would be quite surprised if AI progress slowed down a lot after reaching slightly above human level because the systems are trained on human text.” (said 6 April 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_c058b6e86a05, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_c058b6e86a05
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky
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Mostly false
“So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory.”
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Mixed
“Beating GPT-4 on GI just forces OpenAI to release 4.5.”
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Resolved false
“The current crop of people will not try it.”
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Resolved true
“Alignment will not be solved in a few years.”
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Resolved true
“even if GPT-5 doesn’t end the world, which I agree is like more than 50% of where my probability mass lies”
GPT-5 will not end the world, with more than 50% of Yudkowsky's probability on that outcome.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.