ClaimsRay Kurzweil

“But I show in this book that’s coming out (The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with Computers, expected publication June 18, 2024), the amount of people that are working, even as a percentage of the population, has gone way up.”

Ray Kurzweil, interviewee 16 September 2022 Ray Kurzweil: Google's prophet of superintelligent AI who will not slow down (EDRM) archived copy

Factual AI, the economy and work

The number of people working, even as a percentage of the population, has gone way up, as shown in Kurzweil's book The Singularity Is Nearer (expected June 18, 2024).

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge the factual claim that the number of people working, even as a percentage of the population, has gone 'way up' (over the long historical span Kurzweil references). True if labor-force-participation or employment-to-population data over the relevant long period show a clear, large increase on a percentage-of-population basis. Mostly true if the trend holds with a minor caveat. Mostly false if there was only a modest increase or the increase holds only for a sub-period/subgroup. False if the percentage has not risen or has fallen over the period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Table Data - Employment-Population Ratio FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), citing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 2 October 2026

    “| Notes | | | DATE | VALUE | |---|---| | 1948-01-01 | 56.6 |”
  2. E2 Table Data - Employment-Population Ratio FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), citing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 2 October 2026

    “| 2026-08-01 | 59.1 | | 2026-09-01 | 59.2 |”
  3. E3 Table Data - Employment-Population Ratio FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), citing U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 2 October 2026

    “| 1994-12-01 | 63.1 | | 1995-01-01 | 63.0 |”

Reasoning

The evidence covers only the U.S. employment-population ratio from 1948 onward. It was 56.6 percent in January 1948 [E1], about 63 percent in 1994–1995 [E3] and 59.2 percent in September 2026 [E2]. The surroundings of the claim point to a much longer span, starting around 1774, and none of the evidence covers that period, so it does not settle whether the percentage of people working rose sharply over the span the claim refers to.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “The number of people working, even as a percentage of the population, has gone way up, as shown in Kurzweil's book The Singularity Is Nearer (expected June 18, 2024).” (said 16 September 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_bfe46fda9e49, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bfe46fda9e49

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Ray Kurzweil, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Ray Kurzweil

  1. Resolved true Factual 9 July 2024
    “They were correct that things like the cotton jenny and so on did eliminate lots of these jobs.”

    Inventions like the spinning jenny did eliminate many jobs, as the Luddites claimed.

  2. Mixed Factual March 2017
    “Yet for every job that was eliminated, we invented several new ones”

    For every job that was eliminated, several new ones were invented, with the work force growing from 24 million people (31 percent of the population) in 1900 to 142 million (44 percent of the population) in 2015.

  3. Mostly false Factual March 2017
    “The average job today pays 11 times as much per hour in constant dollars as it did a century ago.”

    The average job today (as of 2017) pays 11 times as much per hour in constant dollars as it did a century ago.

  4. Mostly false Factual 4 June 2026
    “That was not true a year ago. But that’s true today.”

    Large language models being roughly 50% better than human doctors at diagnosing conditions and recommending treatments was not true a year ago but is true today.

  5. Resolved true Factual 20 January 2026
    “In 1999, I predicted 2029 for AGI and I still predict 2029.”

    Kurzweil predicted in 1999 that AGI would arrive in 2029.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.