ClaimsMark Zuckerberg

“Now, I think it's probably going to be the other order.”

Mark Zuckerberg, Meta CEO, interviewee 18 September 2024 The Mark Zuckerberg Interview (Acquired)

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Zuckerberg said he now thinks full-scale AI will probably become available before AR holograms.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague comparative prediction with no horizon and undefined 'full-scale AI'.

Cite this claim

Mark Zuckerberg, “Zuckerberg said he now thinks full-scale AI will probably become available before AR holograms.” (said 18 September 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_bfd09d78df20, method 0.1.0+3f84d14d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bfd09d78df20

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Mark Zuckerberg, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Mark Zuckerberg

  1. Mixed Prediction 10 January 2025
    “it will also mean that we will dramatically reduce the amount of people whose accounts were taking off for a mistake, which is just a terrible experience.”

    Requiring more confidence for takedowns will dramatically reduce the number of people whose Meta accounts are removed by mistake.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 10 January 2025
    “changing the content filters to have to require higher confidence and precision is actually going to be the thing that reduces the vast majority of the censorship mistakes that we make.”

    Changing Meta's content filters to require higher confidence and precision will reduce the vast majority of Meta's censorship mistakes.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 18 April 2024
    “This is only a matter of time but it's not going to be next year.”

    A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year).

  4. Mostly true Prediction 28 September 2023
    “I think Quest 3 is going to be the first device like this that millions of people are going to get that’s mixed reality.”

    Zuckerberg said he thinks Quest 3 is going to be the first mixed reality device that millions of people get.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.