A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year).
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
The core of this prediction is that no 1GW data center would be built in 2025. 'Built' means a single data center or campus reaching about 1 gigawatt of operational (energised) capacity. True: credible reporting through the end of 2025 shows that no single data center reached about 1GW of operational capacity during 2025, and 1GW projects (for example Meta's Prometheus or Hyperion, Stargate, or xAI's Colossus expansions) were under construction or planned, which is consistent with 'only a matter of time'. Mostly true: no facility reached 1GW in 2025, but one came close to it in late 2025 in a way that is open to dispute. Mostly false: a facility was credibly reported to have reached about 1GW of operational capacity in 2025, but only in late 2025, or only by counting several sites or announced rather than energised capacity. False: one or more single-site data centers clearly reached 1GW or more of operational capacity during 2025. Announced or planned capacity alone does not count as 'built'.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Largest AI data center power: doubling every 10 months Epoch AI · 4 September 2026
“Observed frontier | 2025-12-23 | 626.00 | Anthropic-Amazon New Carlisle | Amazon | Anthropic”
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E2 Largest AI data center power: doubling every 10 months Epoch AI · 4 September 2026
“The current record-holder is xAI’s Colossus 2, at an estimated 950 MW.”
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E3 Elon Musk's xAI brings 1GW Colossus 2 AI training cluster online Teslarati · 18 January 2026 Own record
“In a post on X, Musk stated that Colossus 2 is already operational, making it the first gigawatt training cluster in the world.”
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E4 Colossus 2 Everydatacenter · 20 March 2024
“Our records put first power in Oct. 2025.”
Reasoning
Epoch AI's independent tracker puts the largest observed AI data center as of 2025-12-23 at 626 MW (Anthropic-Amazon New Carlisle) [E1], well short of 1 GW. Its later record-holder, xAI's Colossus 2, is estimated at 950 MW as of September 2026 [E2]. Colossus 2 first drew power in October 2025 [E4], and the claim that it was an operational gigawatt cluster came from Musk in January 2026 [E3], so a 1 GW-scale project was under construction but not operational at 1 GW during 2025. This fits the prediction that a 1 GW data center would not be built in 2025 but was "only a matter of time."
Cite this claim
Mark Zuckerberg, “A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year).” (said 18 April 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_5f48bb722de2, method 0.1.0+3f84d14d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5f48bb722de2
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.