ClaimsElon Musk

“Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.”

Elon Musk, Tesla CEO, blog author 20 July 2016 Master Plan, Part Deux (Tesla)

Prediction Economics and markets

The economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a non-self-driving car.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

Reasoning

Vague 'several times' economic utility with no horizon or defined measure.

Cite this claim

Elon Musk, “The economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a non-self-driving car.” (said 20 July 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_bf1032596527, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_bf1032596527

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Elon Musk, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Elon Musk

  1. Mixed Prediction 2016
    “In the 2016 post, Musk says: “A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.””

    A vehicle cheaper than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary for Tesla because of the plan's vehicle-sharing component.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 27 January 2026
    “Then we hope to get supervised full self-driving approval in Europe hopefully next month.”

    Tesla hopes to get European regulatory approval for supervised full self-driving in February 2026.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 30 December 2024
    “AfD is going to win an epic victory!”

    The AfD party will win a big victory in Germany's upcoming election.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
    “for 2023, Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to the bottom line, but it will be next year.”

    Cybertruck will not be a significant contributor to Tesla's bottom line in 2023 but will be in 2024.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 26 January 2023
    “I think there would be demand for that, too.”

    Musk said Tesla was not committing to it, but he thought there would also be demand for the potential of about 2 million vehicles in 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.