Before COVID, one of the big backdrop conditions was what Dalio called "the death cycle monetary creation of debt and monetizing of debt."

Judge as of 2020-10-25 about the period just before COVID, roughly 2019 to February 2020. The test is whether major reserve-currency central banks (the Fed, ECB, BOJ and Bank of England) were creating money and buying government debt on a large scale. Dalio's label 'late-stage debt cycle' is his framing and is not tested. TRUE: most of these central banks were expanding their balance sheets through substantial purchases of government debt in that period. MOSTLY TRUE: large-scale purchases were happening at some major central banks (e.g., BOJ ongoing, ECB restarting QE in November 2019, Fed buying T-bills from late 2019), but on a smaller scale than the wording implies or only late in the period. MIXED: about half of the major central banks were doing so while others were static or shrinking their balance sheets. MOSTLY FALSE: purchases were minor or limited to one central bank, with the others shrinking or holding their balance sheets. FALSE: the major central banks were generally not buying government debt or were shrinking their balance sheets throughout that period.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 [PDF] Asset Purchase Facility - Quarterly Report 2019 Q1 - Bank of England Bank of England

   “During Q1 the APF made £8.022 billion of gilt purchases, as part of a programme to reinvest the cash flows associated with the maturity on 7 March of the 4.5% 2019 gilt owned by the APF.”

2. E2 [PDF] Asset Purchase Facility - Quarterly Report 2019 Q1 - Bank of England Bank of England

   “No corporate bond purchases took place during the quarter.”

3. E3 Implementation Note issued December 11, 2019 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 11 December 2019

   “the Committee directs the Desk to continue purchasing Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of 2020 to maintain over time ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September 2019.”

4. E4 Implementation Note issued December 11, 2019 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 11 December 2019

   “The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities”

The Fed's December 2019 implementation note shows it buying Treasury bills from late 2019 into Q2 2020 to keep reserves at or above early-September 2019 levels, and rolling over maturing Treasuries (E3, E4). The Bank of England's 2019 Q1 report shows gilt purchases that only reinvested maturing holdings, and no corporate bond purchases (E1, E2). No evidence covers the ECB or the Bank of Japan. Whether most of the major central banks were expanding their balance sheets therefore cannot be determined from the evidence.