ClaimsNassim Taleb

“And the automatic shift is vastly more expensive--or it used to be vastly more expensive.”

Nassim Taleb, interviewee 10 July 2017 Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game (EconTalk) archived copy

Factual Technology

Automatic transmissions used to be vastly more expensive than manual ones, though costs have since come down.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts: (a) automatic transmissions used to be much more expensive than manual ones, and (b) that price gap has since narrowed. True: historical pricing data show that automatics carried a substantial premium (for example around $1,000 or more as a new-car option, or a meaningful share of the vehicle's price) and that by 2017 this premium had shrunk considerably or largely disappeared. Mostly true: both parts hold, but the historical premium was moderate rather than 'vastly' larger. Mixed: only one of the two parts is supported. Mostly false: the historical premium was small, or the gap had not narrowed by 2017. False: automatics were not historically more expensive than manuals.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Are Stick Shifts Making a Comeback? | CarMax CarMax · 28 August 2023

    “In the past, there was a significant cost advantage to consider for purchasing a used manual over a used automatic. In 1998, a manual was averaging about 25% cheaper than an automatic at CarMax. Fast forward to 2022 and manuals at CarMax are, on average, less than 5% cheaper than automatics.”
  2. E2 Manual vs. Automatic Transmission - Consumer Reports Consumer Reports · 20 July 2015

    “In our tests, we've found that in some cars a manual transmission can improve gas mileage by a significant 2 to 5 mpg, compared with an automatic, and can cut a car's price by $800 to $1,200.”
  3. E3 Save the Manuals! The virtues of shifting gears yourself Consumer Reports · 29 July 2010

    “Opting for the manual made the car quicker, more fun to drive, and about $1,000 cheaper than the automatic.”
  4. E4 Automatics have gotten much better than manuals — not from the perspective of stick-shift fans, but in the broader sense (and the dollars-and-cents sense). | Cars.com Cars.com · 16 July 2020

    “There used to be many good reasons for a new driver to learn a manual transmission: To start with, cars with stick shifts were cheaper, more efficient and quicker.”

Reasoning

Part (a), that automatics used to cost much more, is well supported. CarMax data show used manuals averaging about 25% cheaper than automatics in 1998 [E1]. Consumer Reports put the new-car premium at about $1,000 in 2010 [E3] and at $800–$1,200 for some cars in 2015 [E2]. Part (b), that the gap had narrowed considerably by 2017, is not established: the 2015 Consumer Reports figure still shows a premium of around $1,000, and the narrowing CarMax describes is measured in 2022, not 2017 [E1]. Cars.com in 2020 says only that manuals "used to be" cheaper, without a date [E4], so only one part of the claim is supported as of the judging date.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “Automatic transmissions used to be vastly more expensive than manual ones, though costs have since come down.” (said 10 July 2017). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_beeabd377842, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_beeabd377842

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nassim Taleb, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nassim Taleb

  1. Resolved true Factual 12 December 2012
    “It took at least five millennia between the invention of the wheel and the innovation of putting wheels under suitcases.”

    At least five millennia passed between the invention of the wheel and the innovation of putting wheels under suitcases.

  2. Mixed Factual 12 January 2009
    “I showed that the computer, the Internet, and the laser—three recent technological black swans—came out of nowhere.”

    The computer, the Internet and the laser were recent technological developments that came out of nowhere and were not understood when they appeared.

  3. Mostly true Factual 12 January 2009
    “The Internet was not built as something to help people communicate in chat rooms; it was a military application and it evolved.”

    The Internet was not built to help people communicate in chat rooms; it began as a military application and evolved.

  4. Mostly false Factual 28 September 2025
    “The Levant was the most stable area in the world between early 1800s and 1948, with squirmishes in 1860.”

    The Levant was the most stable area in the world between the early 1800s and 1948, with only skirmishes in 1860.

  5. Mixed Factual 25 September 2025
    “My point was that bike lanes contribute to IMPROVEMENT in well-being and happiness WITHOUT generating economic growth.”

    Taleb's point was that bike lanes improve well-being and happiness without generating economic growth.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.