ClaimsNassim Taleb

“I showed that the computer, the Internet, and the laser—three recent technological black swans—came out of nowhere.”

Nassim Taleb, author, interview answer 12 January 2009 Taking Improbable Events Seriously: An Interview with the Author of 'The Black Swan' (CBS News) archived copy

Factual Technology

The computer, the Internet and the laser were recent technological developments that came out of nowhere and were not understood when they appeared.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

The claim is that the computer, the Internet and the laser came out of nowhere, i.e. they were unforeseen and their uses were not understood when they appeared. Judge this against the historical record of how each technology was developed and received. True: the history of all three shows they were unplanned or unforeseen in their eventual impact, and their applications were largely not anticipated at the outset. Mostly true: this holds broadly, but one technology had foreseen precursors or goals while its main uses were still unforeseen. Mixed: the uses were unforeseen for some of the three, but others were deliberately developed toward foreseen goals (for example the computer for calculation, ARPANET for networking). Mostly false: the technologies were the result of deliberate research programmes with expected uses, and only their scale of impact was unforeseen, so 'came out of nowhere' overstates it. False: the history shows all three were planned and anticipated developments.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Lasers: The Power of Light National Science Foundation (NSF) · 9 June 2026

    “When Theodore Maiman first demonstrated the laser in 1960, its practical uses and commercial value were far from clear.”
  2. E2 Inventing the Computer IEEE Global History Network (ETHW), IEEE STARS article · 17 January 2018

    “The ENIAC was conceived, built, and used for scientific and military applications.”
  3. E3 A short history of the internet | National Science and Media Museum National Science and Media Museum (UK) · 3 December 2020

    “Among ARPA’s projects was a remit to test the feasibility of a large-scale computer network.”
  4. E4 A short history of the internet | National Science and Media Museum National Science and Media Museum (UK) · 3 December 2020

    “Email was a rapid—but unintended—consequence of the growth of ARPANET.”

Reasoning

The evidence partly supports the claim and partly cuts against it. On the laser it supports the claim: NSF says that when the laser was first demonstrated in 1960, its practical uses and commercial value were far from clear (E1). Against it, the IEEE history says ENIAC was conceived, built and used for scientific and military applications (E2), and the museum history says ARPA had a remit to test the feasibility of a large-scale computer network (E3), which points to deliberate development toward stated goals in these two cases. Email emerging as an unintended result of ARPANET (E4) shows some uses were unforeseen, which fits the criteria's 'mixed' case rather than 'came out of nowhere' for all three.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “The computer, the Internet and the laser were recent technological developments that came out of nowhere and were not understood when they appeared.” (said 12 January 2009). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_aaf0e3fa9be0, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_aaf0e3fa9be0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nassim Taleb, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nassim Taleb

  1. Mixed Factual 10 July 2017
    “And the automatic shift is vastly more expensive--or it used to be vastly more expensive.”

    Automatic transmissions used to be vastly more expensive than manual ones, though costs have since come down.

  2. Resolved true Factual 12 December 2012
    “It took at least five millennia between the invention of the wheel and the innovation of putting wheels under suitcases.”

    At least five millennia passed between the invention of the wheel and the innovation of putting wheels under suitcases.

  3. Mostly true Factual 12 January 2009
    “The Internet was not built as something to help people communicate in chat rooms; it was a military application and it evolved.”

    The Internet was not built to help people communicate in chat rooms; it began as a military application and evolved.

  4. Mostly false Factual 28 September 2025
    “The Levant was the most stable area in the world between early 1800s and 1948, with squirmishes in 1860.”

    The Levant was the most stable area in the world between the early 1800s and 1948, with only skirmishes in 1860.

  5. Mixed Factual 25 September 2025
    “My point was that bike lanes contribute to IMPROVEMENT in well-being and happiness WITHOUT generating economic growth.”

    Taleb's point was that bike lanes improve well-being and happiness without generating economic growth.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.