ClaimsRodney Brooks

“During a ground test of the SpaceX Crewed Dragon capsule, on April 20th, 2019, it exploded catastrophically.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2020 Predictions Scorecard, 2020 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Factual Technology

On 20 April 2019 a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule exploded during a ground test.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

True: reliable records show that on 20 April 2019 a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule was destroyed by an explosion or anomaly during a ground test (e.g. a static fire test). Mostly true: a Crew Dragon was destroyed by an explosion in a ground test, but a minor detail is off, such as the date by a day or two, or the test type is described imprecisely. Mixed: an anomaly happened on that date, but the capsule was damaged rather than destroyed by an explosion. Mostly false: there was a Crew Dragon test anomaly, but at a materially different date, or with no explosion, or it was not a ground test. False: records show no such Crew Dragon ground-test explosion took place.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft destroyed in test mishap, company confirms CBS News · 2 May 2019

    “A senior SpaceX official confirmed Thursday that an "anomaly" during an April 20 ground test destroyed a Crew Dragon spacecraft meant to clear the way for the launch of two astronauts this summer.”
  2. E2 SpaceX points to leaky valve as culprit in Crew Dragon test accident Spaceflight Now · 15 July 2019

    “Investigators believe a leak of propellant inside the Crew Dragon spacecraft’s propulsion system led to the capsule’s explosion April 20 during a ground test at Cape Canaveral”
  3. E3 SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft suffers anomaly during ... SpaceNews · 20 April 2019

    “WASHINGTON — A SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft suffered what the company said was an “anomaly” during static fire tests of its abort engines April 20, dealing a setback to the company’s plans to fly a crewed test flight later this year.”
  4. E4 SpaceX confirms anomaly during Crew Dragon abort engine test Spaceflight Now · 20 April 2019

    “Florida Today reported that unconfirmed reports suggested the Crew Dragon test vehicle was nearly destroyed, and workers in the area said they heard explosions.”

Reasoning

CBS News (E1) reports that SpaceX confirmed an anomaly during an April 20 ground test destroyed a Crew Dragon spacecraft. Spaceflight Now (E2) describes the capsule's explosion on April 20 during a ground test at Cape Canaveral and attributes it to a propellant leak. SpaceNews (E3) dates the anomaly to April 20, during static fire tests of the abort engines. Taken together, these independent reports match the claim's date, test type and the capsule's destruction by explosion.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “On 20 April 2019 a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule exploded during a ground test.” (said 1 January 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b945131ced92, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b945131ced92

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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All of them

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