ClaimsRay Dalio

“There has been very little new lending.”

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, interviewed by Barron's June 2010 Barron's interview with Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates (Benzinga) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

There has been very little new lending following the 2008 crisis government intervention, as of mid-2010.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge this as of June 2010, against US credit data (Federal Reserve H.8 bank loans and leases, Fed Flow of Funds/Z.1 net borrowing by households and businesses, Senior Loan Officer surveys). True: data show bank lending and private-sector net new credit stagnant or contracting from late 2008 to mid-2010, despite the government intervention (for example, bank loan balances flat or falling, and household and business net borrowing near zero or negative). Mostly true: overall net new lending was clearly weak, but some segments (for example government-backed mortgages or corporate bonds) grew meaningfully and the claim overstates it slightly. Mixed: the evidence is split, with some major credit measures stagnant and others growing robustly. Mostly false: lending was weaker than before the crisis but recovered substantially by mid-2010, so 'very little' overstates the weakness. False: data show strong growth in new private lending over the period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States - H.8 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 11 June 2010

    “| 1 | Bank credit | 9,314.0 | 9,083.1 | 9,054.5 | 8,956.9 | 8,885.2 | 8,933.9 | 9,235.8 | 9,188.5 | 9,226.2 | 9,183.4 | 9,153.5 | 9,158.7 |”
  2. E2 The Protracted Convalescence of U.S. Banks Carnegie Endowment for International Peace · 29 April 2010

    “Total loan and lease balances fell by 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, the sixth consecutive quarterly decline, as banks have continued to use cheap credit from the Fed to shore up balance sheets.”
  3. E3 FRB: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: April 2010 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 30 March 2010

    “The survey also indicated that loan demand generally weakened further.”
  4. E4 FRB: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: April 2010 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 30 March 2010

    “A number of large domestic banks eased standards and some terms on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms.”

Reasoning

E2, a Carnegie analysis from April 2010, reports that total bank loan and lease balances fell 1.7% in Q4 2009, the sixth quarterly decline in a row. That covers the period from the crisis through end-2009, when government support was in place. E3, the Fed's April 2010 Senior Loan Officer survey, says loan demand weakened further. E4 says some large banks eased standards on business loans, but an easing of standards does not show that lending grew, so it does not point to meaningful growth in any segment. E1 is an unlabelled table row and was not relied on.

Cite this claim

Ray Dalio, “There has been very little new lending following the 2008 crisis government intervention, as of mid-2010.” (said June 2010). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b3d9d160b7f7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b3d9d160b7f7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Ray Dalio

  1. Mostly false Factual 9 May 2026
    “That has been true through all history.”

    Throughout history, including before World War II, societies have generally had rising living standards and become richer.

  2. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “So when we look at history, we see that in all such periods, all the fiat currencies go down, okay?”

    Dalio said that history shows all fiat currencies go down in all such periods, which followed the interviewer's reference to times "where they can print the money".

  3. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “It takes in about $5 trillion, so it spends 40% more than it takes in.”

    The US government takes in about $5 trillion and spends about $7 trillion, about 40% more than it takes in.

  4. Mostly true Factual 9 May 2026
    “you could still have financial problems, like the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971, okay?”

    The monetary system broke down in 1971 while the United States was still a dominant power.

  5. Resolved true Factual 9 May 2026
    “one-third of our debt is held by foreigners, so that’s a different thing.”

    About one-third of US debt is held by foreigners.

All of them

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