ClaimsBalaji Srinivasan

“I think it's huge, because I think it, basically — it'd be comparable to like the Russo-Japanese War”

Balaji Srinivasan, interviewee 25 March 2021 Tim Ferriss Show #506 Balaji Srinivasan transcript (tim.blog) archived copy

Prediction Other global risks

A US loss in a Taiwan conflict would have huge consequences, comparable to the Russo-Japanese War of 1905.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Conditional hypothetical about a Taiwan conflict with no horizon and vague comparison.

Cite this claim

Balaji Srinivasan, “A US loss in a Taiwan conflict would have huge consequences, comparable to the Russo-Japanese War of 1905.” (said 25 March 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ae9d58eab9a0, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ae9d58eab9a0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Balaji Srinivasan

  1. Mixed Prediction 25 March 2021
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  2. Resolved true Prediction 27 August 2024
    “France may not be able to hold him prisoner for long.”

    France may not be able to hold Telegram founder Pavel Durov in custody for long.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 25 March 2021
    “I think that by 2024, you're going to have to use VPN.”

    By 2024, people in the US will have to use a VPN because of ISP-level internet filtering and censorship.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 31 March 2020
    “Censoring anyone (let alone a head of state) in this way will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.”

    Censoring anyone in this way, let alone a head of state, will push people towards censorship-resistant platforms.

  5. Mixed Prediction 30 March 2020
    “When checks hit, people will spend on consumer staples.”

    When US stimulus checks arrive, people will spend them on consumer staples, after which prices will rise.

All of them

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