Since Nate Silver began covering elections in 2008, Democrats have been prone to bouts of panic about the state of the horse race.

This is a characterisation, so judge it by degree. True: contemporaneous reporting and polling commentary from 2008 to October 2024 show repeated, widely reported episodes of Democratic anxiety or panic over the presidential or congressional horse race, across several cycles (for example 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024). It also requires that Silver began covering elections around 2008 (FiveThirtyEight launched in March 2008). Mostly true: such episodes are well documented in most cycles but not all, or Silver's start date is slightly off (for example late 2007). Mixed: such episodes are documented in only roughly half the cycles, or are not clearly more marked than ordinary partisan worry. Mostly false: there is only one or two isolated episodes, stretched into a pattern. False: the evidence shows no such recurring episodes, or Silver did not cover elections from about 2008.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 An Excerpt From Mark Halperin and John Heilemann’s ‘Double Down: Game Change 2012’ -- New York Magazine - Nymag New York Magazine · 10 April 2019

   “Democrats were rending their garments and collapsing on their fainting couches.”

2. E2 An Excerpt From Mark Halperin and John Heilemann’s ‘Double Down: Game Change 2012’ -- New York Magazine - Nymag New York Magazine · 10 April 2019

   “In 2008, Plouffe had airily dismissed Democrats who lost their minds in the midst of Palinmania as “bedwetters.””

3. E3 Column: Democrats should worry, not panic Los Angeles Times · 18 September 2016

   “And yet, as Clinton’s poll numbers have sagged, Democrats have started freaking out: What if the Clinton of 2016 is just as error-prone as the Clinton of 2008?”

4. E4 Why I Started FiveThirtyEight The Daily Beast · 10 November 2012 Own record

   “In March 2008, I spun my analysis out to my own website, FiveThirtyEight, which sought to make predictions about the general election.”

Independent sources record episodes of Democratic panic about the horse race in several cycles. E2 recounts Democrats who "lost their minds" during Palinmania in 2008. E1, an excerpt from the book on the 2012 campaign, describes Democrats "rending their garments" in that cycle. E3, a 2016 column, reports Democrats "freaking out" as Clinton's poll numbers fell. The evidence does not cover the 2020 or 2024 cycles, and the only support for Silver starting in 2008 is his own essay (E4), which says he launched FiveThirtyEight in March 2008. So the pattern is documented in most of the cycles named but not all.