A lot of the technology shown at Connect 2021 will not be available within the next year or two.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge at 2023-12-31. List the products and technologies Meta showed at Connect 2021 (for example the Project Nazare AR glasses, EMG wrist interface, Codec Avatars, Project Cambria, Horizon Home, Horizon Workrooms features, Presence Platform, social features in VR). True: a substantial share of them, including several headline items, were still not available to consumers or developers by end of 2023. Mostly true: most were unavailable, but a somewhat larger share shipped than the claim implies. Mixed: roughly half of the showcased items had become available. Mostly false: most showcased items were available by end of 2023, with only a few exceptions. False: nearly everything shown was available by end of 2023.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Reports: Meta Cancels 2024 AR Glasses Consumer Release Amid Cost Cutting UploadVR · 10 June 2022
“Meta no longer plans release the AR glasses slated for 2024 to consumers, The Information and The Verge report.”
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E2 Meta Quest has an answer to Apple Vision Pro digital personas — meet ‘Codec Avatars’ Tom's Guide · 25 January 2024
“In March 2023 CTO Andrew Bosworth warned during an Instagram AMA that despite making progress they were "still years away" from being able to launch them.”
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E3 Connect 2021 Recap: Horizon Home, the Future of Work, Presence Platform, and More Meta (developers.meta.com) · 28 October 2021 Own record
“We also provided a sneak peek of our next-generation all-in-one VR hardware, Project Cambria, launching next year.”
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E4 Evolving the Future of Work at Meta Connect 2022 Meta (meta.com) · 11 October 2022 Own record
“We’re shipping the ability to spawn three massive virtual screens on your desk, as well as four types of personal environments.”
Reasoning
The evidence suggests that two items were not expected soon: AR glasses slated for 2024 (E1, which does not name Project Nazare) and Codec Avatars, described as still years away in March 2023 (E2). It does not show the status by end of 2023 of most items shown at Connect 2021, and E3 and E4 do not establish what shipped from that showcase, so it cannot show whether most items were unavailable.
Cite this claim
Mark Zuckerberg, “A lot of the technology shown at Connect 2021 will not be available within the next year or two.” (said 28 October 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ac134eb0f93a, method 0.1.0+3f84d14d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ac134eb0f93a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Mark Zuckerberg
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Mostly true
“I think Quest 3 is going to be the first device like this that millions of people are going to get that’s mixed reality.”
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Mixed
“it will also mean that we will dramatically reduce the amount of people whose accounts were taking off for a mistake, which is just a terrible experience.”
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Mostly true
“changing the content filters to have to require higher confidence and precision is actually going to be the thing that reduces the vast majority of the censorship mistakes that we make.”
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Resolved true
“This is only a matter of time but it's not going to be next year.”
A 1GW data center will be built eventually, but not in 2025 (next year).
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.