Within 200 years of 2002, our intelligence will nearly saturate the available matter and energy in and around the solar system, given current understanding of computation limits.

Cite this claim

Ray Kurzweil, “Within 200 years of 2002, our intelligence will nearly saturate the available matter and energy in and around the solar system, given current understanding of computation limits.” (said 12 December 2002). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_ab7730cefbca, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ab7730cefbca

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

More prediction claims by Ray Kurzweil

1. Mostly false Prediction · 3 June 2015

   “We're going to gradually merge and enhance ourselves.”

   Kurzweil predicted that humans will gradually merge with technology and enhance themselves.

2. Mostly false Prediction · January 2001

   “In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020.”

   Supercomputers will achieve one human brain's capacity by 2010, and personal computers by around 2020.

3. Resolved true Prediction · January 2001

   “we’re not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decades”

   Within a couple of decades of 2001, the computational power to emulate the human brain will be available.

4. Mostly false Prediction · May 2020

   “This is where combining AI with biotechnology is headed, and within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done this way.”

   Within several years all vaccine and medication development could be done by combining AI with biotechnology.

5. Resolved true Prediction · 12 December 2002

   “Ten or 15 years from now we’ll go to the third dimension.”

   Ten or 15 years after 2002, computing will move to three-dimensional circuits as integrated circuits run out of steam.

All of them