It is plausible that "AI finance ministers and central bankers" could replicate or exceed the "10% accomplishment" that the surrounding text credits to human economic planners whose policy choices helped countries catch up with the developed world.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
A 'plausible' claim with no horizon, and the '10%' figure is undefined and hard to test.
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “It is plausible that "AI finance ministers and central bankers" could replicate or exceed the "10% accomplishment" that the surrounding text credits to human economic planners whose policy choices helped countries catch up with the developed world.” (said 17 August 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_aa724161604d, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_aa724161604d
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
-
Mostly true
“I do think in the short run it will augment and increase the productivity of coders rather than replacing them.”
-
Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
-
Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
-
Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
-
Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.