As of August 2019, the world largely looked to Dalio to be leveraged long, with a lot of borrowing to buy assets and companies.

Judge against data on leverage around mid-2019. TRUE: authoritative sources (for example IIF global debt monitors, the IMF Global Financial Stability Report of 2019, or BIS data) show record or historically elevated global debt, with substantial borrowing used to buy assets, such as debt-financed buybacks, leveraged buyouts and M&A, leveraged loans, or margin and other investor leverage. MOSTLY TRUE: overall leverage was elevated but debt-financed asset purchases were notable only in some major segments. MIXED: leverage was high in some regions or sectors but flat or falling in others, so 'largely' is doubtful. MOSTLY FALSE: debt levels were high but there is little evidence that the borrowing went into asset purchases. FALSE: the data show broad deleveraging or low leverage in 2019.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Buybacks: Companies increasingly using debt to ... CNBC · 29 July 2019

   “U.S. companies are on pace to break another record for share repurchases in 2019, using a combination of cash and debt to push the total to close to $1 trillion.”

2. E2 Buybacks: Companies increasingly using debt to ... CNBC · 29 July 2019

   “The level of buybacks to free cash flow hit 104% for the 12 months ending in the first quarter of 2019, the first time that number has topped 100% during the economic recovery that started in 2009.”

3. E3 Buybacks: Companies increasingly using debt to ... CNBC · 29 July 2019

   “At the same time, corporate leverage continues to rise as gross debt outstanding has climbed 8% over the past 12 months.”

4. E4 The age of leverage | Bank for International Settlements Bank for International Settlements (speech by Bank of Canada governor) · 15 March 2019

   “Global debt now totals around US$240 trillion-that's US$100 trillion higher than just before the financial crisis, and more than three times current global gross domestic product (GDP).”

5. E5 Chapter 2 - Global Corporate Vulnerabilities: Riskier Business International Monetary Fund · October 2019

   “Payouts—dividends and share buybacks—at US large firms have grown to record high levels in recent quarters (Figure 2.3, panel 1), whereas debt-funded payouts have increased since 2017.”

6. E6 The Global Debt Monitor and updated global debt database are available to IIF members on our website at https://www.iif.com/publications/global-debt- Institute of International Finance (IIF) · 13 January 2020

   “The global debt-to-GDP ratio hit a new all-time high of over 322% in Q3 2019, with total debt reaching close to $253 trillion:”

7. E7 2019 Private Equity Midyear Review and Outlook Debevoise & Plimpton LLP · July 2019

   “Although debt financing was hard to come by toward the end of 2018, financing markets started to stabilize in the first quarter of this year.”

Global debt was at record levels around mid-2019: about US$240 trillion in early 2019, more than three times global GDP (E4), and a new all-time high of over 322% of GDP in Q3 2019 (E6). The evidence that this borrowing went into buying assets comes mainly from US corporate buybacks. These were on a record pace and funded partly with debt (E1). They exceeded free cash flow (E2), corporate gross debt kept rising (E3), and the IMF reported that debt-funded payouts had increased since 2017 (E5). The evidence on leveraged buyouts and other segments is thin and mixed (E7), so debt-financed asset purchases are shown clearly only in some major segments, which fits mostly true rather than true.