Over the next year or two, even without better models, there would be enormous opportunity to boost productivity by catching mistakes and doing grunt work with current AI models.
Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
deadline 2026 is after 2026-11-04
Cite this claim
Dario Amodei, “Over the next year or two, even without better models, there would be enormous opportunity to boost productivity by catching mistakes and doing grunt work with current AI models.” (said 11 November 2024). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_a62393ade0e3, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a62393ade0e3
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Dario Amodei
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Mostly true
“I do think in the short run it will augment and increase the productivity of coders rather than replacing them.”
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Mostly false
“We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend.”
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Mostly true
“We're gonna be fine. The-- the impact of this designation is fairly small.”
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Resolved false
“where AI is writing 90 percent of the code”
Within three to six months of March 2025, AI will be writing 90 percent of code.
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Resolved false
“And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code”
Within twelve months of March 2025, AI may be writing essentially all of the code.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.