GiveWell will share a full, substantive response to the winning and runner-up contest entries.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
What would count as true or false
Delivered (true): GiveWell published a substantive response addressing the content of each winning and each runner-up entry in the Change Our Mind contest. Mostly true: every such entry got a response, with one response noticeably brief. Mostly false: responses covered only some of the winning and runner-up entries. False: a later record (for example the results post or a later update) shows no such responses were published or that the plan was dropped. No deadline was given; record when the responses appeared.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 The winners of the Change Our Mind Contest—and some reflections - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 15 December 2022 Own record
“Winners are listed below, followed by our reflections on this contest and responses to the winners.”
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E2 The winners of the Change Our Mind Contest—and some reflections - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 15 December 2022 Own record
“We’re not sure if conducting the full uncertainty modeling recommended by the entry is the right approach for GiveWell, and we’d like to explore alternative approaches to addressing this issue.”
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E3 The winners of the Change Our Mind Contest—and some reflections - The GiveWell Blog GiveWell · 15 December 2022 Own record
“We believe the authors understand our analysis well and were able to identify some weak points in our cost-effectiveness analysis; we expect to make some but not all of the changes they propose.”
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E4 Four prize-winning posts from 2022 - Happier Lives Institute Happier Lives Institute · 23 December 2022
“We believe HLI’s feedback is likely to change some of our funding recommendations, at least marginally, and perhaps, more importantly, improve our decision-making across multiple interventions.”
Reasoning
GiveWell's 15 December 2022 results post says it includes responses to the winners (E1). It gives substantive responses to the Haber first-place entry (E2) and the Romer & Romer first-place entry (E3), and the Happier Lives Institute quotes a GiveWell response to its prize-winning entry (E4). The fetched text shows no individual responses to the honorable-mention (runner-up) entries, but it was cut off partway (E3), so their absence does not show those responses were never published. The evidence therefore does not settle whether every runner-up entry received a substantive response.
Cite this claim
GiveWell, “GiveWell will share a full, substantive response to the winning and runner-up contest entries.” (said 6 April 2022). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_a2683a51e756, method 0.1.0+7831dd9d, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a2683a51e756
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More promise claims by GiveWell
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Delivered on time
“Winners will be announced by December 15, 2022.”
GiveWell will announce contest winners by December 15, 2022.
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Mostly false
“We hope to conduct in-depth reviews of one to two other charities (most likely Precision Agriculture for Development and/or Sanku, though possibly others) as well, but may have limited capacity to do…”
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Mostly true
“We will make these grants if we believe they are more cost-effective than the opportunities to which we would otherwise direct funds.”
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Mostly true
“This year, we expect to complete our review of the RCT results and to make a decision about whether to direct additional funding to support New Incentives’ work.”
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Resolved true
“we’ll be trying to examine ourselves as dispassionately and critically as possible, and sharing our self-review in something close to real time via this blog.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.