ClaimsSatya Nadella

“In this new world, there will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices – from a farmer in a remote part of the world with a smartphone, to a professional power user with multiple devices powered by cloud service-based apps spanning work and life.”

Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO, in memo to employees 10 July 2014 Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella vows to 'reinvent' productivity in huge memo sent to employees (The Next Web) archived copy

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The claim gives no date; 'soon' is read as within about two years, so it is judged at end-2016. True if ITU or comparable estimates (e.g., GSMA or World Bank) show more than 3 billion people using the internet or internet-connected devices by end-2016. Mostly true if the threshold was crossed by roughly 2017. Mostly false if it was crossed only well later, around 2018 to 2019. False if it had not been crossed by 2019.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 ICT FACTS AND FIGURES 2016 - ITU International Telecommunication Union (ITU) · June 2016

    “By end 2016, 3.9 billion people - 53% of the world’s population – is not using the Internet.”
  2. E2 ITU releases annual global ICT data and ICT Development Index country rankings International Telecommunication Union (ITU) · 24 November 2014

    “Over three billion people are now online and information and communication technology (ICT) growth remains buoyant in just about every country worldwide, according to ITU’s flagship annual Measuring the Information Society Report.”
  3. E3 Press Release: ITU releases 2016 ICT figures ... International Telecommunication Union (ITU)

    “By the end of 2016, more than half of the world's population – 3.9 billion people – will not yet be using the Internet.”
  4. E4 Digital Divide International Monetary Fund (Finance & Development)

    “The number of Internet users has more than tripled in the past decade—from 1 billion in 2005 to an estimated 3.2 billion at the end of 2015.”

Reasoning

An ITU press release from November 2014 says that "over three billion people are now online" (E2). An IMF piece puts internet users at about 3.2 billion at the end of 2015 (E4). ITU's 2016 figures say 3.9 billion people, or 53% of the world's population, would not be using the internet by end-2016 (E1, E3). That implies roughly 47% were online, which is well above 3 billion. So independent estimates show the 3-billion threshold was crossed before the end-2016 cutoff.

Cite this claim

Satya Nadella, “There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices.” (said 10 July 2014). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_a1fd773e2e7f, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a1fd773e2e7f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Satya Nadella, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Satya Nadella

  1. Mixed Prediction 15 November 2023
    “I'm hoping that in 24, I think of calendar year 24 is the year where we will have, I call classic commercial enterprise deployment and deployment data for all of us.”

    Nadella said he hoped calendar year 2024 would be the year of classic commercial enterprise deployment and deployment data for AI Copilots.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 30 April 2020
    “Nadella is confident that Q4 will see "consistent execution on a large annuity base, with continued usage and consumption growth across our cloud offerings".”

    Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2020 will show consistent execution on a large annuity base, with continued usage and consumption growth across its cloud offerings.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 30 April 2020
    “The answer is more, just because it is more efficient.”

    In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now.

All of them

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