In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged in 2022 against the 2020 baseline. True if industry data shows that the share or volume of computing workloads run in public or hybrid cloud in 2022 was greater than in 2020, for example from Gartner or IDC cloud spending figures, Synergy cloud market size, or workload-share surveys such as Flexera's. Mostly true if the increase is clear on most measures with minor exceptions. Mixed if measures conflict (for example, spending rose but the workload share was flat). Mostly false if growth was negligible or limited to a narrow segment. False if public or hybrid cloud workloads fell or did not grow between 2020 and 2022.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 State of the Cloud Report (Flexera 2022 State of the Cloud Report) Flexera · 2022
“Cloud adoption continues to become more mainstream, as figure 7 shows. Heavy users (currently running more than 25 percent of workloads in the cloud) are up to 63 percent, an increase from 59 percent in 2021 and 53 percent in 2020.”
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E2 Cloud Market Share Q4 2022: Microsoft Gains On AWS As Google Grows | CRN CRN · 7 February 2023
“For the entire 2022, enterprise cloud service spending reached $227 billion, an increase of $47 billion compared to 2021.”
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E3 Cloud Market Share Q4 2022: Microsoft Gains On AWS As Google Grows | CRN CRN · 7 February 2023
“However, AWS’ global market share has remained relatively flat over the past five years, according to Synergy cloud market data.”
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E4 Worldwide Public Cloud Services Revenues Surpass $500 Billion in 2022, Growing 22.9% Year Over Year, According to IDC Tracker IDC (International Data Corporation) · 6 July 2023
“Worldwide revenue for the public cloud services market totaled $545.8 billion in 2022, an increase of 22.9% over 2021.”
Reasoning
Flexera's 2022 survey [E1] reports that the share of organisations running more than 25 percent of their workloads in the cloud rose from 53 percent in 2020 to 63 percent in 2022. Spending figures point the same way: CRN [E2] put 2022 enterprise cloud spending at $227 billion, up $47 billion from 2021, and IDC [E4] reported public cloud revenue of $545.8 billion in 2022, up 22.9% from 2021. E3 measures one provider's market share, not how much work runs in the cloud, so it does not cut against the growth.
Cite this claim
Satya Nadella, “In two years' time (by 2022) more work will be done in public or hybrid cloud than now.” (said 30 April 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_20b0a52d30a8, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_20b0a52d30a8
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Satya Nadella
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Mixed
“I'm hoping that in 24, I think of calendar year 24 is the year where we will have, I call classic commercial enterprise deployment and deployment data for all of us.”
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Mostly true
“Nadella is confident that Q4 will see "consistent execution on a large annuity base, with continued usage and consumption growth across our cloud offerings".”
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Resolved true
“In this new world, there will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices – from a farmer in a remote part of the world with a smartphone, to a professional power user with…”
There will soon be more than 3 billion people with Internet-connected devices.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.