ClaimsWarren Buffett

“We had 85,000 entries last year but I'll bet we go over 100,000 this year.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway CEO, interviewed on CNBC 27 February 2017 Full transcript of Buffett's interview with CNBC (Feb 2017) (CNBC) archived copy

Prediction Their own work or organisation

Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Prediction for the 2017 Berkshire employee NCAA bracket contest. True: a reliable report (Buffett's statements, Berkshire communications, press) shows the 2017 contest had more than 100,000 entries. Mostly true: not used beyond rounding, e.g. a reported figure of 'about 100,000' that is described as above 100,000. Mostly false: entries rose above the roughly 85,000 of 2016 but stayed at or below 100,000. False: entries were at or below about 85,000, or the contest was not held in 2017.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (5)

  1. E1 Warren Buffett's 2017 March Madness Bracket Contest: $1 Million A Year For Life Forbes · 28 February 2017

    “Buffett is expecting more than 100,000 entries this year after 85,000 Berkshire employees filled out an official bracket last year.”

  2. E2 Warren Buffett is planning to give a lucky employee $1 million each year for the rest of their life SmartCompany · 2 March 2017

    “Buffett said the company is expecting over 100,000 entries. Last year, when Buffett ran a similar competition, 85,000 entries were received.”

  3. E3 Warren Buffett's 2017 March Madness Bracket Contest: $1 Million A Year For Life Forbes · 28 February 2017

    “Buffett is expecting more than 100,000 entries this year after 85,000 Berkshire employees filled out an official bracket last year.”

  4. E4 Warren Buffett Will Pay You a Million a Year for Life | Fortune Fortune · 27 February 2017

    “Roughly 85,000 entered the contest last year, though Buffett is betting over 100,000 will participate this year.”

  5. E5 A Brief History of Warren Buffett's Million-Dollar NCAA Bracket Challenge Yahoo Finance · 12 March 2018

    “Last year, the offer was the same: $1 million every year for life for a perfect bracket, or $100,000 for the best bracket.”

Reasoning

E1–E4 come from February and March 2017, before the contest. They only repeat Buffett's expectation of more than 100,000 entries after about 85,000 in 2016, and give no actual 2017 count. E5 (2018) shows the 2017 contest was held with the same prize offer, which rules out the 'not held' false case, but it gives no entry total. None of the evidence shows whether 2017 entries went above 100,000, so the criteria cannot be applied.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016.” (said 27 February 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_9f5fda966f8a, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9f5fda966f8a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Warren Buffett, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Prediction 4 May 2024
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    Buffett said he feels very comfortable that the post-Buffett decision will be made by Berkshire's board, which he said has loads of brainpower and a dedication to an unusual institution and will figure things out.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 4 May 2024
    “But we have sold shares, and I would say that at the end of the year, I would think it extremely likely that Apple is the largest common stock holding we have now.”

    Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 2007
    “In 2007, our results from the bread-and-butter lines of insurance will deteriorate, though I think they will remain satisfactory.”

    Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2002
    “Ron Peltier has built this business for us, and it's likely he will make more acquisitions in 2002 and the years to come.”

    Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 28 February 2002
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    Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.