As a worst-case ('pessimal') prediction, Yudkowsky said the Fed would stay wrong about rising NGDP flow being the real cause of inflation until a Republican won the 2024 presidential election, after which it would decide interest rates needed to go way up.

The claim has three linked parts. (a) Up to the November 2024 US presidential election, the Fed keeps declining to treat excess nominal demand (NGDP growth) as the main cause of inflation and does not move rates up sharply. (b) A Republican wins the 2024 presidential election. (c) After that win, the Fed decides rates need to go 'way up', meaning a clear shift to substantial rate increases, judged by FOMC decisions and statements from the election to the end of 2025. True: all three hold. Mostly true: all three hold in substance, with a small slip in a detail, such as the shift being modest rather than 'way up' while still clearly a pivot to raising rates after the election. Mixed: (b) holds and one of (a) or (c) holds. Mostly false: only (b) holds, for example because the Fed tightened sharply well before the election (which breaks the 'up until' timing) and did not pivot to sharp hikes after it. False: the Fed tightened sharply before the election and cut or held rates after a Republican win, or a Republican did not win. FOMC statements, the federal funds rate history and Fed officials' stated explanations of inflation are the decisive evidence.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 7 November 2024

   “In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.”

2. E2 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 18 September 2024

   “In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.”

3. E3 Fed Funds Rate History: Every Fed Decision Since 2008, Chart interestratedecision.com (third-party rate-history site; data read from FXStreet economic calendar) · 16 September 2026

   “| ▼ Cutting | Sep 18, 2024 | Dec 10, 2025 | 6 | −175 bp | 5.25%–5.50% → 3.50%–3.75% |”

4. E4 Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results Federal Election Commission · 16 January 2025

   “Donald J. Trump (R, C)”

The evidence shows the Fed cut rates from September 2024 through December 2025, including after the November 2024 election (E1, E2, E3), so part (c) did not hold. The evidence does not show who won the 2024 election (E4 only lists Trump as a candidate). It also does not show any sharp tightening before the election or how the Fed explained inflation. Without these, the criteria cannot separate 'false' from 'mixed'.